SGI 2022 | Portugal | Executive Summary

Executive Summary

Recent Governments Experts

SGI experts on Portugal

Carlos Jalali

Assistant Professor, Universidade de Aveiro

Carlos Jalali is assistant professor at the University of Aveiro and researcher at the Governance, Competitiveness and Public Policies Research Centre. He earned his doctorate in political science from the University of Oxford, having previously received an MSc in development economics (University of London) and a BA in philosophy, politics and economics (University of Oxford). He has published more than thirty articles and book chapters examining Portuguese political institutions and politics.

Thomas C. Bruneau

Professor Emeritus, Naval Postgraduate School Center for Contemporary Conflict, Monterey

Thomas Bruneau is distinguished professor emeritus of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. He joined the department in 1987 after having taught in the Department of Political Science at McGill University. Mr. Bruneau became chair of the department in 1989, and continued in that position until 1995. He became director of the Center for Civil Military Relations in November 2000, a position he held until December 2004. He left U.S. government service in early 2013. He has three recently published books. His single authored book, Patriots for Profit: Contractors and the Military in U.S. National Security was published by Stanford University Press in mid-2011. His co-edited book, with Lucia Dammert and Elizabeth Skinner, Maras: Gang Violence and Security in Central America was published by the University of Texas Press in late 2011. His last co-edited book, with Cris Matei, The Routledge Handbook of Civil-Military Relations was published by Routledge in London in late-2012.

Marió Ferreira Bacalhau

César Colino (Coordinator)

Associate Professor, National University for Distance Education

César Colino is associate professor at the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at the Spanish National Distance-Learning University (UNED) in Madrid. He has taught at the University of Salamanca and the Autonomous University of Madrid and has been visiting researcher at the Max-Planck Institute for the Study of Society (MPIfG) in Cologne and Research Officer at the Institute for Research in Public Administration (FöV) in Speyer, Germany. His recent research and publications have addressed issues of comparative public policy and administration, comparative federalism, and constitutional reform in federations with a focus on the Spanish, German and Canadian federal systems. He has published in journals such as Policy & Politics; Comparative European Politics; Public Administration; Regional & Federal Studies; and Publius: The Journal of Federalism. He has recently published a book on comparative administration (in Spanish) Gobiernos y administraciones públicas en perspectiva comparada, Valencia: 2013 (with S. Parrado y J. Olmeda), and is the author of the forthcoming chapter “National and European patterns of public administration and governance,” in the Handbook of European Politics, José M. Magone ed. London: Routledge (with Eloísa del Pino).

Period defined by
pandemic

The period under review covers the first two years in office of the second António Costa government. The period was inevitably overshadowed by the pandemic. However, it also saw the eventual demise of the Costa government in December 2021.

Allies desert
government
on budget

The preceding Costa government was able to maintain the support of the political forces to the Socialist Party’s (PS) left – that is, the Left Bloc (Bloco de Esquerda, BE) and the Portuguese Communist Party (Partido Comunista Português, PCP) – to attain power and then to survive throughout a full legislative period, notably in terms of approving the key policy instrument in Portugal, the state budget. However, the government in power during the review period was unable to get either party to abstain on its budget proposal for 2022, which would have been enough for the budget to be approved. As a result, the Portuguese president dissolved parliament in early December, with fresh elections due to take place on 30 January 2022.

End of six-year
governing model

Unsurprisingly, the PS blamed its left-wing partners for the failure to approve the budget, while the latter argued that this failure lay at the feet of the PS. Regardless, this marked the end of the model that had prevailed in the preceding six years: one in which policy sought to gradually wind down austerity measures while simultaneously engaging in budgetary consolidation. It remains to be seen what governing model will emerge after the 2022 elections.

Pre-pandemic
budget surplus

Before the onset of the pandemic, this model delivered the country’s first budget surplus in over 50 years, in 2019. This positive outcome was helped by economic growth, boosted by exports and tourism. Equally, unemployment rates remain low, at around 7%. Moreover, the country has sought to become attractive to the tech sector, with Google and other tech giants opening facilities in Portugal, as exemplified by the country’s ability to host the Web Summit since 2016, with a deal in place to continue hosting the summit until 2028.

Largely positive
record on COVID-19

The response to the pandemic was also largely positive, if not flawless. The country reacted rapidly to the first wave of the pandemic in 2020, avoiding the overutilization of hospitals seen in other southern European countries such as Italy or Spain. Moreover, it has been able to achieve the highest COVID-19 vaccination rates in Europe and is in the top three worldwide, which is a remarkable success. In this largely positive assessment, the one very negative element is the government’s handling of the Christmas 2020 period, when the relaxation of COVID-19 rules led to a massive increase in cases and deaths in early 2021.

Persistent governance weaknesses

The above elements would suggest an overwhelmingly positive assessment regarding Portugal’s governance. However, these coexist with persistently low scores in governance dimensions pertaining to policy formulation, implementation and oversight. It is also important to note that there is recognition of the problem. The second Costa government program has remained committed to improving governance and strategic capacity (e.g., with steps to institutionalize RIA). However, the regulatory impact assessment (RIA) framework, strategic decision-making, monitoring of institutional arrangements and policy evaluations remain comparatively weak. As in the past, this weak capacity affects the quality and impact of new and existing policies.