SGI 2022 | Portugal | Executive Summary

Executive Summary

Recent Governments Experts

SGI experts on Portugal

Sofia Serra da Silva

Sofia Serra-Silva is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Institute of Social Sciences, University of Lisbon. She earned her PhD in Comparative Politics (Political Science) from the University of Lisbon (2020). In the spring semester of 2023, Serra-Silva held the position of FLAD Visiting Professor in the Department of Government at Georgetown University in Washington, DC. Her academic path has been marked by significant stints as a visiting scholar at prestigious institutions such as Oxford University, the University of Leeds, and the University of Vienna, further enriching her intellectual and professional journey. Her scholarly work has earned publication in a variety of academic journals, including Policy & Internet, Party Politics, and The Journal of Legislative Studies. Sofia’s research spans a broad spectrum of subjects such as parliaments, political parties, political behavior, and public engagement. Her investigations delve into areas ranging from the electoral success of parties to the quality of democracy and the nuances of digital politics.

Carlos Jalali

Carlos Jalali is assistant professor at the University of Aveiro and researcher at the Governance, Competitiveness and Public Policies Research Centre. He earned his doctorate in political science from the University of Oxford, having previously received an MSc in development economics (University of London) and a BA in philosophy, politics and economics (University of Oxford). He has published more than thirty articles and book chapters examining Portuguese political institutions and politics.

César Colino (Coordinator)

César Colino is associate professor at the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at the Spanish National Distance-Learning University (UNED) in Madrid. He has taught at the University of Salamanca and the Autonomous University of Madrid and has been visiting researcher at the Max-Planck Institute for the Study of Society (MPIfG) in Cologne and Research Officer at the Institute for Research in Public Administration (FöV) in Speyer, Germany. His recent research and publications have addressed issues of comparative public policy and administration, comparative federalism, and constitutional reform in federations with a focus on the Spanish, German and Canadian federal systems. He has published in journals such as Policy & Politics; Comparative European Politics; Public Administration; Regional & Federal Studies; and Publius: The Journal of Federalism. He has recently published a book on comparative administration (in Spanish) Gobiernos y administraciones públicas en perspectiva comparada, Valencia: 2013 (with S. Parrado y J. Olmeda), and is the author of the forthcoming chapter “National and European patterns of public administration and governance,” in the Handbook of European Politics, José M. Magone ed. London: Routledge (with Eloísa del Pino).

The period under review began with developments that gave rise to optimism in Portugal. First, the country entered 2022 as one of the most vaccinated nations in the world against COVID-19, with 83.5% of its population fully vaccinated by January 14, 2022. Second, Portugal began receiving funds from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility. This facility, amounting to €22.2 billion for Portugal, provided a unique opportunity to bolster public investment following a decade of the lowest public investment rate since democratization, starting with the country’s bailout in 2011. Third, Portugal seemed poised for a period of political stability conducive to implementing reforms, as the Socialist Party, led by incumbent Prime Minister António Costa, won a single-party parliamentary majority in the January 30, 2022, legislative elections.

However, as this report highlights, the period from 2022 to 2024 fell short of expectations. The country continues to face significant hurdles regarding governance capacity, particularly in government analytical competence in areas such as impact assessment and policy evaluation. There is also a considerable gap in policy implementation, with lofty policy pronouncements not being fully reflected in actual policy delivery. This is evident in the lower-than-budgeted levels of public investment, which were 25% below the government’s forecast in 2023. The health and education sectors were particularly affected, executing only 43% and 28% of the expected investment, respectively (Leitão, 2024).

Moreover, there was a deterioration in the provision of key public services, notably in education, health, and access to housing. In some cases, this decline is the culmination of long-identified factors, such as an aging teacher population, which have remained unaddressed.

Youth unemployment remains high. This, coupled with low wages, has continued to foster emigration, worsening Portugal’s demographic crisis.

The anticipated period of political stability was disrupted by several political scandals, culminating in the resignation of Prime Minister António Costa in November 2023. In such cases, Portugal’s political system empowers the directly elected president to decide whether to appoint a new government with the current legislature or to hold fresh elections. The president chose the latter, scheduling legislative elections for March 10, 2024 – the third election in less than four and a half years.

Despite these challenges, there are some important bright spots. The country has maintained fiscal sustainability, with an estimated record budget surplus of 1.1% of GDP in 2023. Public debt has been significantly reduced to 98.7% in 2023, a substantial decrease from the debt exceeding 130% during the bailout period. Unemployment is low, and the country has performed comparatively well in terms of economic growth. Additionally, Portugal is welcoming to immigrants and remains strongly committed to addressing climate change, with a highly decarbonized energy system on track to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Portugal also demonstrates a strong foundation in civil and political rights and effective legislative committees. It upholds a broad spectrum of civil and political rights and freedoms for its citizens, as enshrined in the 1976 Portuguese constitution. Freedom of the press not only enjoys constitutional protection in Portugal but is also internationally recognized for its strong adherence to press freedom principles.

In other words, the country’s assessment is by no means negative. Yet, a conclusion that emerges is that this period was arguably a lost opportunity to address long-standing and well-identified problems that Portugal faces.

In policy terms, these include not only education, health, and housing but also the taxation system, which is overly reliant on regressive indirect taxation and is complex. At the environmental level, there is an implementation gap, reflected in high landfilling rates and one of Europe’s lowest municipal recycling rates.

At the governance level, the weak participation of civil society organizations (CSOs) in the co-creation of relevant policies is due in no small part to the weakness of civil society. This limited engagement of CSOs in policy formulation and decision-making processes hinders policy development.

Regarding democratic performance and protections, gaps remain in the country’s anti-corruption measures, with minimal progress in combating corruption, as indicated by the 2022 reports from Transparency International and the European Commission. Moreover, despite media pluralism, practical challenges persist, especially due to a shortage of resources allocated to investigative journalism.

Overall, Portugal has benefited fromsome clear successes, though enduring problems remain unaddressed.

Citations:

Leitão, L. 2024. “Investimento público em 2023 ficou 25% abaixo da previsão do governo.” ECO. https://eco.sapo.pt/2024/02/27/investimento-publico-em-2023-ficou-25-abaixo-da-previsao-do-governo