Social Policies
#21Key Findings
With a recent focus on revitalizing social systems, Portugal falls into the middle ranks (rank 21) in the area of social policies. Its score on this measure represents a gain of 0.8 points relative to its 2014 level.
Education attainment levels are low and the system is unequal by international comparison. Performance improvements have stagnated. A failure to recruit new teachers is presenting looming problems. Welfare spending has returned to pre-austerity levels. However, poverty and social exclusion remain serious problems.
The universal healthcare system generally performs well. Vaccination rates were the world’s highest in 2021. Financial constraints have led to a reduction in health services. Family support policies have been expanded, but a rise in the birth rate has reversed. Women’s workforce participation is often forced by generally low wages and household income needs rather than free choice.
Pension values have again been increased. The retirement age is now indexed to life expectancy. The system is likely to experience financial imbalances over the medium and long term. Integration policy is strong, with a welcoming framework for migrants. The naturalization process has recently been made easier, and the volume of requests for Portuguese nationality has risen substantially.
Education attainment levels are low and the system is unequal by international comparison. Performance improvements have stagnated. A failure to recruit new teachers is presenting looming problems. Welfare spending has returned to pre-austerity levels. However, poverty and social exclusion remain serious problems.
The universal healthcare system generally performs well. Vaccination rates were the world’s highest in 2021. Financial constraints have led to a reduction in health services. Family support policies have been expanded, but a rise in the birth rate has reversed. Women’s workforce participation is often forced by generally low wages and household income needs rather than free choice.
Pension values have again been increased. The retirement age is now indexed to life expectancy. The system is likely to experience financial imbalances over the medium and long term. Integration policy is strong, with a welcoming framework for migrants. The naturalization process has recently been made easier, and the volume of requests for Portuguese nationality has risen substantially.
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To what extent does education policy deliver high-quality, equitable and efficient education and training?
10
9
9
Education policy fully achieves the criteria.
8
7
6
7
6
Education policy largely achieves the criteria.
5
4
3
4
3
Education policy partially achieves the criteria.
2
1
1
Education policy does not achieve the criteria at all.
Education policy is a field in which results only come to fruition long after their implementation. In the case of Portugal, we can see a steady improvement in educational attainment since the beginning of the new millennium. At the same time, these improvements have been insufficient to reverse a historic pattern of low overall and unequal levels of educational attainment.
From a formal perspective, Portugal offers equitable access to education. Compulsory schooling in the public sector is free through the end of secondary education. Higher education has comparatively low fees as well as means-tested support for low-income students.
However, this coexists with inequality in the quality of the education obtained and generally low levels of efficiency. Though these have been improving, the unstable policy framework has meant that these improvements are arguably taking place at a slower rate than would otherwise be possible.
In terms of educational attainment, Portugal continues to show low and unequal levels of educational attainment. The country remains firmly anchored at the bottom of the OECD in terms of the proportion of the population having completed upper secondary education, with 27.2% of the population aged between 25 and 64 having attained this level in 2020, although this was a 2.4 percentage point improvement vis-à-vis 2018. While Portugal fares comparatively better in terms of tertiary education (28.2% in 2020, a 3.2 percentage point improvement vis-à-vis 2018), it is still over 10 percentage points below the OECD average.
There remains room for improvement, on at least four grounds.
First, there is significant variation in the quality of education between schools. The average school score in the 2020 national exams ranged from 15.24 (out of 20) for the highest-rated public school to 9.08 in the lowest-rated public school. The variance is even greater when we also consider private schools, with the best-performing school posting an average of 18.03 – almost twice the average for the lowest-rated school. Additionally, anecdotal evidence suggests that the quality of education is often unequal within schools.
Second, these differences reflect policy failures, including the lack of effective accountability mechanisms and incentives, weak lifelong training, and inefficient management systems.
Third, the considerable instability in the sector – with substantial changes from year to year – means that the educational system is unpredictable, and that the impact of changes is limited.
Finally, the failure to recruit new teachers should be noted. Portugal now has one of the oldest teaching populations in the OECD. In 2007, there were 102 teachers aged 50 or over for every 100 teachers aged under 35, across all levels from primary to secondary. In 2019, there were a staggering 1,595 teachers aged 50 or over for every 100 teachers aged under 35 – an increase of more than 200 vis-à-vis 2018 (1,358).
Moreover, it should be noted that improvements appear to have stagnated in recent years. Unlike previous rounds, the latest 2018 PISA assessment show a stagnation in terms of student performance. Likewise, in higher education, there were three universities in the top 500 of the Academic Ranking of World Universities. While this is a significant improvement vis-à-vis 2006, when Portugal was the only EU-15 country (excluding Luxembourg) not to have at least one institution in the top 500, it is a decrease when compared to 2018, when Portugal had four universities and outranked Ireland.
Citations:
Academic Ranking of World Universities, available online at: https://www.shanghairanking.com/rankings/
OECD (2022), Adult education level (indicator). Doi: 10.1787/36bce3fe-en (Accessed on 09 January 2022)
Pordata (2019), “Índice de envelhecimento dos _nsino_ em exercício nos ensinos pré-escolar, básico e secundário: por nível de _nsino – Continente,” available online at: https://www.pordata.pt/Portugal/%c3%8dndice+de+envelhecimento+dos+_nsino_+em+exerc%c3%adcio++nos+ensinos+pr%c3%a9+escolar++b%c3%a1sico+e+secund%c3%a1rio+por+n%c3%advel+de+_nsino+++Continente-944-7743
Público (2021), “Em que lugar ficou a sua escola,” available online at: https://www.publico.pt/ranking-escolas-2020/lugar-sua-escola
Rádio Renascença (2019), “Relatório PISA. Alunos portugueses pioraram nos últimos três anos,” available online at: https://rr.sapo.pt/noticia/pais/2019/12/11/relatorio-pisa-alunos-portugueses-pioraram-nos-ultimos-tres-anos/173914/
From a formal perspective, Portugal offers equitable access to education. Compulsory schooling in the public sector is free through the end of secondary education. Higher education has comparatively low fees as well as means-tested support for low-income students.
However, this coexists with inequality in the quality of the education obtained and generally low levels of efficiency. Though these have been improving, the unstable policy framework has meant that these improvements are arguably taking place at a slower rate than would otherwise be possible.
In terms of educational attainment, Portugal continues to show low and unequal levels of educational attainment. The country remains firmly anchored at the bottom of the OECD in terms of the proportion of the population having completed upper secondary education, with 27.2% of the population aged between 25 and 64 having attained this level in 2020, although this was a 2.4 percentage point improvement vis-à-vis 2018. While Portugal fares comparatively better in terms of tertiary education (28.2% in 2020, a 3.2 percentage point improvement vis-à-vis 2018), it is still over 10 percentage points below the OECD average.
There remains room for improvement, on at least four grounds.
First, there is significant variation in the quality of education between schools. The average school score in the 2020 national exams ranged from 15.24 (out of 20) for the highest-rated public school to 9.08 in the lowest-rated public school. The variance is even greater when we also consider private schools, with the best-performing school posting an average of 18.03 – almost twice the average for the lowest-rated school. Additionally, anecdotal evidence suggests that the quality of education is often unequal within schools.
Second, these differences reflect policy failures, including the lack of effective accountability mechanisms and incentives, weak lifelong training, and inefficient management systems.
Third, the considerable instability in the sector – with substantial changes from year to year – means that the educational system is unpredictable, and that the impact of changes is limited.
Finally, the failure to recruit new teachers should be noted. Portugal now has one of the oldest teaching populations in the OECD. In 2007, there were 102 teachers aged 50 or over for every 100 teachers aged under 35, across all levels from primary to secondary. In 2019, there were a staggering 1,595 teachers aged 50 or over for every 100 teachers aged under 35 – an increase of more than 200 vis-à-vis 2018 (1,358).
Moreover, it should be noted that improvements appear to have stagnated in recent years. Unlike previous rounds, the latest 2018 PISA assessment show a stagnation in terms of student performance. Likewise, in higher education, there were three universities in the top 500 of the Academic Ranking of World Universities. While this is a significant improvement vis-à-vis 2006, when Portugal was the only EU-15 country (excluding Luxembourg) not to have at least one institution in the top 500, it is a decrease when compared to 2018, when Portugal had four universities and outranked Ireland.
Citations:
Academic Ranking of World Universities, available online at: https://www.shanghairanking.com/rankings/
OECD (2022), Adult education level (indicator). Doi: 10.1787/36bce3fe-en (Accessed on 09 January 2022)
Pordata (2019), “Índice de envelhecimento dos _nsino_ em exercício nos ensinos pré-escolar, básico e secundário: por nível de _nsino – Continente,” available online at: https://www.pordata.pt/Portugal/%c3%8dndice+de+envelhecimento+dos+_nsino_+em+exerc%c3%adcio++nos+ensinos+pr%c3%a9+escolar++b%c3%a1sico+e+secund%c3%a1rio+por+n%c3%advel+de+_nsino+++Continente-944-7743
Público (2021), “Em que lugar ficou a sua escola,” available online at: https://www.publico.pt/ranking-escolas-2020/lugar-sua-escola
Rádio Renascença (2019), “Relatório PISA. Alunos portugueses pioraram nos últimos três anos,” available online at: https://rr.sapo.pt/noticia/pais/2019/12/11/relatorio-pisa-alunos-portugueses-pioraram-nos-ultimos-tres-anos/173914/
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To what extent does social policy prevent exclusion and decoupling from society?
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9
9
Policies very effectively enable societal inclusion and ensure equal opportunities.
8
7
6
7
6
For the most part, policies enable societal inclusion effectively and ensure equal opportunities.
5
4
3
4
3
For the most part, policies fail to prevent societal exclusion effectively and ensure equal opportunities.
2
1
1
Policies exacerbate unequal opportunities and exclusion from society.
Government social policies seeking to limit socioeconomic disparities do exist and have been partially successful in preventing poverty.
The 2011 – 2014 bailout led to the adoption of austerity measures that sought to reduce public expenditure on social inclusion and contributions to poverty-reduction programs. This led to an increase in the share of those at risk of poverty after social transfers, from 17.9% in 2010 to 19.5% in 2014 and 2015.
The Costa government stated its intention to turn the page on austerity, without relinquishing its approach to budgetary consolidation.
As such, there has been a gradual reversal in austerity measures imposed on pension and welfare payments. In 2018, the situation had returned to pre-bailout levels, with the share of the population at risk of poverty after social transfers falling to 17.3%, one percentage point below the level for 2017. It subsequently continued to fall further, to 16.2% in 2020. This was the lowest level since 1995 (covering the period for which Eurostat has data) and below the estimated EU average of 17.1%.
However, poverty and social exclusion remain serious problems in Portugal. Some 20% of Portuguese workers earn the minimum wage, while the mean monthly salary is just €1,005. The government recognizes the importance of this challenge. Its policies for combating social exclusion are grouped under the Programa Operacional Inclusão Social e Emprego.
While Portugal still has a long way to go in terms of eliminating the risk of social exclusion, the results for 2020 are very encouraging, not least as they have been achieved during the difficult times of the pandemic.
Citations:
Eurostat, “People at risk of poverty after social transfers,” available online at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/t2020_52/default/table?lang=en
Pordata, “Salário médio mensal dos trabalhadores por conta de outrem: remuneração base e ganho,” available online at: https://www.pordata.pt/Portugal/Salário+médio+mensal+dos+trabalhadores+por+conta+de+outrem+remuneração+base+e+ganho-857
Pordata, “Trabalhadores por conta de outrem com salário mínimo nacional por sector de actividade económica - Continente (%),” available online at: “https://www.pordata.pt/Portugal/Trabalhadores+por+conta+de+outrem+com+salário+m%C3%ADnimo+nacional+por+sector+de+actividade+económica+++Continente+(percentagem)-2897
https://poise.portugal2020.pt/inicio
The 2011 – 2014 bailout led to the adoption of austerity measures that sought to reduce public expenditure on social inclusion and contributions to poverty-reduction programs. This led to an increase in the share of those at risk of poverty after social transfers, from 17.9% in 2010 to 19.5% in 2014 and 2015.
The Costa government stated its intention to turn the page on austerity, without relinquishing its approach to budgetary consolidation.
As such, there has been a gradual reversal in austerity measures imposed on pension and welfare payments. In 2018, the situation had returned to pre-bailout levels, with the share of the population at risk of poverty after social transfers falling to 17.3%, one percentage point below the level for 2017. It subsequently continued to fall further, to 16.2% in 2020. This was the lowest level since 1995 (covering the period for which Eurostat has data) and below the estimated EU average of 17.1%.
However, poverty and social exclusion remain serious problems in Portugal. Some 20% of Portuguese workers earn the minimum wage, while the mean monthly salary is just €1,005. The government recognizes the importance of this challenge. Its policies for combating social exclusion are grouped under the Programa Operacional Inclusão Social e Emprego.
While Portugal still has a long way to go in terms of eliminating the risk of social exclusion, the results for 2020 are very encouraging, not least as they have been achieved during the difficult times of the pandemic.
Citations:
Eurostat, “People at risk of poverty after social transfers,” available online at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/t2020_52/default/table?lang=en
Pordata, “Salário médio mensal dos trabalhadores por conta de outrem: remuneração base e ganho,” available online at: https://www.pordata.pt/Portugal/Salário+médio+mensal+dos+trabalhadores+por+conta+de+outrem+remuneração+base+e+ganho-857
Pordata, “Trabalhadores por conta de outrem com salário mínimo nacional por sector de actividade económica - Continente (%),” available online at: “https://www.pordata.pt/Portugal/Trabalhadores+por+conta+de+outrem+com+salário+m%C3%ADnimo+nacional+por+sector+de+actividade+económica+++Continente+(percentagem)-2897
https://poise.portugal2020.pt/inicio
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To what extent do health care policies provide high-quality, inclusive and cost-efficient health care?
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9
9
Health care policy achieves the criteria fully.
8
7
6
7
6
Health care policy achieves the criteria largely.
5
4
3
4
3
Health care policy achieves the criteria partly.
2
1
1
Health care policy does not achieve the criteria at all.
Portugal has an inclusive national health system that covers the entire population. Access to hospitals is mediated by relatively low fees, with exemptions for low-income households and other groups. There is some inequality in access to primary healthcare, with about 10% of the population not having a steady GP. However, while this creates an additional barrier to accessing primary healthcare, it does not exclude access altogether.
Portugal performs comparatively well across a number of health policy indicators, including life expectancy and infant mortality, with results that significantly outperform the level of public expenditure. In the context of the pandemic, this has been reflected in the country’s stellar performance in terms of vaccination, with the country registering the highest vaccination rates in the world in September 2021.
At the same time, the focus of the healthcare system is largely reactive and concentrated on “big ticket” statistics (e.g., life expectancy and infant mortality). The healthcare system pays relatively little attention to women’s concerns during childbirth. Likewise, the number of healthy years a person can expect to live after 65 years of age is well below the EU average, particularly for women, even though average life expectancy exceeds the EU average. The most recent Eurostat data for 2019 indicates that Portugal has the sixth-lowest number of healthy years after 65 for women and the ninth-lowest for men in the European Union, both constituting a drop of one position in the ranking vis-à-vis 2017.
The period under review saw the confluence of two distinct issues: First was the pressure exerted by the pandemic on the national health system; and second was the continued financial pressure to curb public expenditure, with the healthcare sector affected by de facto restrictions on expenditure. The combination of these forces led to reductions in some services and to resignations by medical directors in protest. However, the situation appears to be more positive than in the previous report, as the government increased recruitment of doctors and nurses into the health system in 2020, with an increase of over 1,000 doctors (an increase of 6%) and of over 1,750 nurses (increase of 3.7%).
Citations:
Eurostat (2021), “Healthy life years statistics,” available online at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Healthy_life_years_statistics#Healthy_life_years_at_age_65
Fortune (2021), “Portugal leads the world in COVID-19 vaccinations,” available online at: https://fortune.com/2021/09/25/portugal-leads-the-world-in-covid-19-vaccinations/
Governo de Portugal (2021), “Pandemia e despesas com SNS explicam défice de 6673 milhões de euros até outubro,” available online at: https://www.portugal.gov.pt/pt/gc22/comunicacao/comunicado?i=pandemia-e-despesas-com-sns-explicam-defice-de-6673-milhoes-de-euros-ate-outubro
SIM, Notícias SIM, available online at: https://www.simedicos.pt/pt/noticias/noticias-sim/
Portugal performs comparatively well across a number of health policy indicators, including life expectancy and infant mortality, with results that significantly outperform the level of public expenditure. In the context of the pandemic, this has been reflected in the country’s stellar performance in terms of vaccination, with the country registering the highest vaccination rates in the world in September 2021.
At the same time, the focus of the healthcare system is largely reactive and concentrated on “big ticket” statistics (e.g., life expectancy and infant mortality). The healthcare system pays relatively little attention to women’s concerns during childbirth. Likewise, the number of healthy years a person can expect to live after 65 years of age is well below the EU average, particularly for women, even though average life expectancy exceeds the EU average. The most recent Eurostat data for 2019 indicates that Portugal has the sixth-lowest number of healthy years after 65 for women and the ninth-lowest for men in the European Union, both constituting a drop of one position in the ranking vis-à-vis 2017.
The period under review saw the confluence of two distinct issues: First was the pressure exerted by the pandemic on the national health system; and second was the continued financial pressure to curb public expenditure, with the healthcare sector affected by de facto restrictions on expenditure. The combination of these forces led to reductions in some services and to resignations by medical directors in protest. However, the situation appears to be more positive than in the previous report, as the government increased recruitment of doctors and nurses into the health system in 2020, with an increase of over 1,000 doctors (an increase of 6%) and of over 1,750 nurses (increase of 3.7%).
Citations:
Eurostat (2021), “Healthy life years statistics,” available online at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Healthy_life_years_statistics#Healthy_life_years_at_age_65
Fortune (2021), “Portugal leads the world in COVID-19 vaccinations,” available online at: https://fortune.com/2021/09/25/portugal-leads-the-world-in-covid-19-vaccinations/
Governo de Portugal (2021), “Pandemia e despesas com SNS explicam défice de 6673 milhões de euros até outubro,” available online at: https://www.portugal.gov.pt/pt/gc22/comunicacao/comunicado?i=pandemia-e-despesas-com-sns-explicam-defice-de-6673-milhoes-de-euros-ate-outubro
SIM, Notícias SIM, available online at: https://www.simedicos.pt/pt/noticias/noticias-sim/
Graph View
To what extent do family support policies enable women to combine parenting with participation in the labor market?
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9
9
Family support policies effectively enable women to combine parenting with employment.
8
7
6
7
6
Family support policies provide some support for women who want to combine parenting and employment.
5
4
3
4
3
Family support policies provide only few opportunities for women who want to combine parenting and employment.
2
1
1
Family support policies force most women to opt for either parenting or employment.
As noted in the previous edition, the birth rate rose in recent years, increasing from 7.9 per 1,000 persons in 2013 and 2014 to 8.5 births per 1,000 persons in 2018. However, this number diminished to 8.2 in 2020, after already having dropped to 8.4 in 2019.
The birth rate remains well below the pre-bailout rate of 9.6 births per 1,000 persons in 2010. Moreover, the current birth rate falls well short of mitigating Portugal’s looming demographic crisis, with the low birth rate aggravated further by the country’s high emigration rate. The United Nation’s median projection forecasts that Portugal’s population will decline from 10.2 million in 2010 to 9.1 million in 2050.
During the period under review, the government introduced several additional measures, including an extension of fathers’ mandatory parental leave from 15 to 20 days; more tax deductions for families with children under three, from the second child on; and pre-kindergarten financial support for families, with low-income families provided with free access to pre-kindergarten services.
However, these measures still fall well short of providing a legal and substantial support framework that would enable women to freely decide whether and when they want to enter full- or part-time employment. In a country with low wages, female participation in the workforce – which is one of the highest in the OECD – reflects the income needs of households as much as it does the actual choices of women and families.
Citations:
Eurostat, “Live births and crude birth rate,” Available online at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/refreshTableAction.do?tab=table&plugin=1&pcode=tps00204&language=en
UN, “World Population Prospects 2019 Data Booklet,” available online at: https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_DataBooklet.pdf
The birth rate remains well below the pre-bailout rate of 9.6 births per 1,000 persons in 2010. Moreover, the current birth rate falls well short of mitigating Portugal’s looming demographic crisis, with the low birth rate aggravated further by the country’s high emigration rate. The United Nation’s median projection forecasts that Portugal’s population will decline from 10.2 million in 2010 to 9.1 million in 2050.
During the period under review, the government introduced several additional measures, including an extension of fathers’ mandatory parental leave from 15 to 20 days; more tax deductions for families with children under three, from the second child on; and pre-kindergarten financial support for families, with low-income families provided with free access to pre-kindergarten services.
However, these measures still fall well short of providing a legal and substantial support framework that would enable women to freely decide whether and when they want to enter full- or part-time employment. In a country with low wages, female participation in the workforce – which is one of the highest in the OECD – reflects the income needs of households as much as it does the actual choices of women and families.
Citations:
Eurostat, “Live births and crude birth rate,” Available online at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/refreshTableAction.do?tab=table&plugin=1&pcode=tps00204&language=en
UN, “World Population Prospects 2019 Data Booklet,” available online at: https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_DataBooklet.pdf
Graph View
To what extent does pension policy realize goals of poverty prevention, intergenerational equity and fiscal sustainability?
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9
9
Pension policy achieves the objectives fully.
8
7
6
7
6
Pension policy achieves the objectives largely.
5
4
3
4
3
Pension policy achieves the objectives partly.
2
1
1
Pension policy does not achieve the objectives at all.
Pension values were again increased in 2020 and 2021, particularly for low-income pensioners.
The official retirement age is linked to life expectancy. In 2021, it was raised to 66 years and six months, one month later than in 2020 and 2019.
Despite this adjustment factor, the system faces medium- and long-term financial imbalances. Expenditure on pensions is high and has risen since the turn of the new millennium. Between 2000 and 2013, expenditure on pensions increased by over 50%, from 10% to 15.7% of GDP. This is the third largest increase in the European Union, exceeded only by Cyprus and Greece. Since 2013, it has fallen, standing at 13.7% in 2019, the most recent year for which data is available, a reduction from 14.6% in 2016. However, that still remains the fourth-highest level in the European Union. This contrasts with 2000, when it was only the 14th highest in the European Union.
A recent study of the pension system, which looked ahead to 2070, forecasts an increase in the absolute number of pensioners from 26.3% of the population in 2020 to 35.9% in 2050. While this is not expected to raise the weight of pensions as a share of GDP, the study does forecast that, if the social security system remains unchanged, it will run deficits between 2027 and 2070, peaking at a deficit of 2.8% of GDP in 2050.
Citations:
Aníbal, S. (2020), “Aumento das pensões semelhante ao de 2019, mas mais tardio,” Público online, available at: https://www.publico.pt/2020/01/16/economia/noticia/governo-confirma-aumento-extraordinario-10-euros-pensoes-baixas-1900551
Crisóstomo, P. (2020), “Parlamento aprova aumento das pensões mais baixas a partir de Janeiro,” Público online, available at: https://www.publico.pt/2020/11/20/politica/noticia/parlamento-aprova-aumento-pensoes-baixas-partir-janeiro-1940061
Moreira, A. (2019), “Sustentabilidade do sistema de pensões português,” available online at: https://www.ffms.pt/FileDownload/62281dcc-1734-403d-846e-c5b38bc8fa7e/resumo-do-estudo-sustentabilidade-do-sistema-de-pensoes-portugues
Pordata, “Pensões: despesa total em % do PIB,” available online at: https://www.pordata.pt/Europa/Pens%C3%B5es+despesa+total+em+percentagem+do+PIB-1579
The official retirement age is linked to life expectancy. In 2021, it was raised to 66 years and six months, one month later than in 2020 and 2019.
Despite this adjustment factor, the system faces medium- and long-term financial imbalances. Expenditure on pensions is high and has risen since the turn of the new millennium. Between 2000 and 2013, expenditure on pensions increased by over 50%, from 10% to 15.7% of GDP. This is the third largest increase in the European Union, exceeded only by Cyprus and Greece. Since 2013, it has fallen, standing at 13.7% in 2019, the most recent year for which data is available, a reduction from 14.6% in 2016. However, that still remains the fourth-highest level in the European Union. This contrasts with 2000, when it was only the 14th highest in the European Union.
A recent study of the pension system, which looked ahead to 2070, forecasts an increase in the absolute number of pensioners from 26.3% of the population in 2020 to 35.9% in 2050. While this is not expected to raise the weight of pensions as a share of GDP, the study does forecast that, if the social security system remains unchanged, it will run deficits between 2027 and 2070, peaking at a deficit of 2.8% of GDP in 2050.
Citations:
Aníbal, S. (2020), “Aumento das pensões semelhante ao de 2019, mas mais tardio,” Público online, available at: https://www.publico.pt/2020/01/16/economia/noticia/governo-confirma-aumento-extraordinario-10-euros-pensoes-baixas-1900551
Crisóstomo, P. (2020), “Parlamento aprova aumento das pensões mais baixas a partir de Janeiro,” Público online, available at: https://www.publico.pt/2020/11/20/politica/noticia/parlamento-aprova-aumento-pensoes-baixas-partir-janeiro-1940061
Moreira, A. (2019), “Sustentabilidade do sistema de pensões português,” available online at: https://www.ffms.pt/FileDownload/62281dcc-1734-403d-846e-c5b38bc8fa7e/resumo-do-estudo-sustentabilidade-do-sistema-de-pensoes-portugues
Pordata, “Pensões: despesa total em % do PIB,” available online at: https://www.pordata.pt/Europa/Pens%C3%B5es+despesa+total+em+percentagem+do+PIB-1579
Graph View
How effectively do policies support the integration of migrants into society?
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9
9
Cultural, education and social policies effectively support the integration of migrants into society.
8
7
6
7
6
Cultural, education and social policies seek to integrate migrants into society, but have failed to do so effectively.
5
4
3
4
3
Cultural, education and social policies do not focus on integrating migrants into society.
2
1
1
Cultural, education and social policies segregate migrant communities from the majority society.
The bailout was accompanied by a decline in immigration. However, since 2016 the resident foreign population has increased at an accelerating rate. After a 2% increase in the immigrant population in 2016, it increased 6% in 2017 and 15% in 2018. In the review period, this increased even further: an increase of 23.3% in 2019 and, despite pandemic travel restrictions, 12.3% in 2020. This brings the total number of foreigners residing in Portugal to over 660,000, almost 300,000 more than in 2015.
In previous SGI reports, we noted that Portugal has a welcoming policy framework for migrants. The country ranked third in the 2020 Migrant Integration Policy Index (MIPEX) in terms of most favorable migrant-integration policies, with an improvement in its rating, with MIPEX noting that “Portugal has consistently improved since the first MIPEX edition.” Consistent with this, and as detailed in the previous SGI report, the most recent OSCE Good Practices in Migrant Integration: Trainee’s Manual of 2018 highlights a number of good practices in Portugal.
Legal immigrants have the right to work. Children of immigrants have access to the education system, regardless of their legal status. Immigrants, regardless of their legal status, can make complaints to the Commission for Equality against Racial Discrimination (Comissão para a Igualdade contra a Discriminação Racial) if they believe they have been discriminated. Complaints can also be brought by witnesses to the discrimination. This Commission is in charge of applying Portugal’s anti-discrimination legislation.
Portugal’s citizenship policies are praised by MIPEX as “world-leading.” In 2020, parliament approved new amendments to the laws that make naturalization easier, making spouses and legal partners of Portuguese citizens eligible to apply for citizenship after three years; and granting citizenship to children of illegal immigrants residing in Portugal for over a year.
These changes, combined with an earlier amendment in 2018 as well as Portugal’s improving economy, have contributed to a rise in the number of naturalizations. In the three years of 2015-2017, there were 284,558 requests for naturalization. In the three subsequent years, 2018-2020, this number increased to 398,194.
Portugal has sought to be a leader at the EU level with regard to refugees and migrants, advocating a liberal position. It has consistently shown a willingness to take in refugees and a government statement in June 2021 indicated that Portugal had received the sixth-highest number of refugees as part of the EU resettlement program.
Citations:
Governo de Portugal (2021), “Dia Mundial do Refugiado – nota à comunicação social,” available online at: https://www.portugal.gov.pt/download-ficheiros/ficheiro.aspx?v=%3D%3DBQAAAB%2BLCAAAAAAABAAzNLQ0NAYAVEHDQAUAAAA%3D
Lei Orgânica nº 2/2018 [Law no. 2/2018], available online at: https://dre.pt/home/-/dre/115643970/details/maximized
Lei Orgânica nº 2/2020 [Law no. 2/2020], available online at: https://dre.pt/dre/detalhe/lei-organica/2-2020-148086464
Migrant Integration Policy Index, “Key Findings – Portugal 2019,” available online at: http://www.mipex.eu/portugal
Neves, C. (2020), “Portugal concede nacionalidade a 121 mil estrangeiros. Brasileiros lideram pedidos,,” DN, available online at: https://www.dn.pt/edicao-do-dia/12-nov-2020/portugal-concede-nacionalidade-a-121-mil-estrangeiros-brasileiros-lideram-pedidos-13025619.html
Observador (2020), “Quase 150 mil pessoas obtiveram nacionalidade portuguesa em 2020,,” available online at: https://observador.pt/2021/07/28/quase-150-mil-pessoas-obtiveram-nacionalidade-portuguesa-em-2020/
OSCE (2018), Good Practices in Migrant Integration: Trainee’s Manual, available online at: https://ec.europa.eu/migrant-integration/?action=media.download&uuid=17D9FD33-0B7B-A37B-0CD6F2869D688741
Pordata, “População estrangeira com estatuto legal de residente: total e por algumas nacionalidades,” available online at: https://www.pordata.pt/Portugal/Popula%C3%A7%C3%A3o+estrangeira+com+estatuto+legal+de+residente+total+e+por+algumas+nacionalidades-24
In previous SGI reports, we noted that Portugal has a welcoming policy framework for migrants. The country ranked third in the 2020 Migrant Integration Policy Index (MIPEX) in terms of most favorable migrant-integration policies, with an improvement in its rating, with MIPEX noting that “Portugal has consistently improved since the first MIPEX edition.” Consistent with this, and as detailed in the previous SGI report, the most recent OSCE Good Practices in Migrant Integration: Trainee’s Manual of 2018 highlights a number of good practices in Portugal.
Legal immigrants have the right to work. Children of immigrants have access to the education system, regardless of their legal status. Immigrants, regardless of their legal status, can make complaints to the Commission for Equality against Racial Discrimination (Comissão para a Igualdade contra a Discriminação Racial) if they believe they have been discriminated. Complaints can also be brought by witnesses to the discrimination. This Commission is in charge of applying Portugal’s anti-discrimination legislation.
Portugal’s citizenship policies are praised by MIPEX as “world-leading.” In 2020, parliament approved new amendments to the laws that make naturalization easier, making spouses and legal partners of Portuguese citizens eligible to apply for citizenship after three years; and granting citizenship to children of illegal immigrants residing in Portugal for over a year.
These changes, combined with an earlier amendment in 2018 as well as Portugal’s improving economy, have contributed to a rise in the number of naturalizations. In the three years of 2015-2017, there were 284,558 requests for naturalization. In the three subsequent years, 2018-2020, this number increased to 398,194.
Portugal has sought to be a leader at the EU level with regard to refugees and migrants, advocating a liberal position. It has consistently shown a willingness to take in refugees and a government statement in June 2021 indicated that Portugal had received the sixth-highest number of refugees as part of the EU resettlement program.
Citations:
Governo de Portugal (2021), “Dia Mundial do Refugiado – nota à comunicação social,” available online at: https://www.portugal.gov.pt/download-ficheiros/ficheiro.aspx?v=%3D%3DBQAAAB%2BLCAAAAAAABAAzNLQ0NAYAVEHDQAUAAAA%3D
Lei Orgânica nº 2/2018 [Law no. 2/2018], available online at: https://dre.pt/home/-/dre/115643970/details/maximized
Lei Orgânica nº 2/2020 [Law no. 2/2020], available online at: https://dre.pt/dre/detalhe/lei-organica/2-2020-148086464
Migrant Integration Policy Index, “Key Findings – Portugal 2019,” available online at: http://www.mipex.eu/portugal
Neves, C. (2020), “Portugal concede nacionalidade a 121 mil estrangeiros. Brasileiros lideram pedidos,,” DN, available online at: https://www.dn.pt/edicao-do-dia/12-nov-2020/portugal-concede-nacionalidade-a-121-mil-estrangeiros-brasileiros-lideram-pedidos-13025619.html
Observador (2020), “Quase 150 mil pessoas obtiveram nacionalidade portuguesa em 2020,,” available online at: https://observador.pt/2021/07/28/quase-150-mil-pessoas-obtiveram-nacionalidade-portuguesa-em-2020/
OSCE (2018), Good Practices in Migrant Integration: Trainee’s Manual, available online at: https://ec.europa.eu/migrant-integration/?action=media.download&uuid=17D9FD33-0B7B-A37B-0CD6F2869D688741
Pordata, “População estrangeira com estatuto legal de residente: total e por algumas nacionalidades,” available online at: https://www.pordata.pt/Portugal/Popula%C3%A7%C3%A3o+estrangeira+com+estatuto+legal+de+residente+total+e+por+algumas+nacionalidades-24
Graph View
How effectively does internal security policy protect citizens against security risks?
10
9
9
Internal security policy protects citizens against security risks very effectively.
8
7
6
7
6
Internal security policy protects citizens against security risks more or less effectively.
5
4
3
4
3
Internal security policy does not effectively protect citizens against security risks.
2
1
1
Internal security policy exacerbates the security risks.
Portugal is signatory to and participant in all relevant Europe-wide programs regarding public security. In addition, Portugal has created a General Secretariat for the Internal Security System, which reports to the prime minister via the minister for internal administration.
Overall, reported crime increased slightly in 2019 relative to 2018 (0.7%), with violent crime also rising (3%). In 2020, however, the country showed considerably lower levels of reported crime, with a decrease of 11% in total crime and 13.4% in violent crime relative to 2019. Undoubtedly, the restrictions caused by the pandemic contributed to this exceptional 2020 result.
Withing this generally positive picture, domestic violence constitutes a black spot. It was the most-reported crime in 2020, and there were 32 deaths associated with domestic violence, a decrease from 39 in 2018 and 37 in 2019.
Portugal remains a relatively safe country in international terms. Furthermore, Portugal has not experienced a terrorist attack of the kind witnessed in many other European countries. Whether this is due to effective intelligence gathering and policing or the priorities and preferences of potential terrorists is unclear.
In a previous SGI report, we noted the failure of civil-protection services during the 2017 forest fires, which resulted in over 100 deaths and over 500,000 hectares of burned land. While Portugal again experienced substantial forest fires in 2020, their impact was considerably more limited, though the total area burned was higher than in 2018 and 2019, and five firefighters died in combating the flames. These improvements are due to a more active policy framework with regard to forest fire prevention, with the government embarking on a number of forest fire prevention initiatives (e.g., strengthening the requirement for landowners to clear shrubbery that could otherwise fuel fires), as well as more favorable weather conditions than in 2017.
Citations:
Moutinho, A. R. (2020), “2020: números da época de incêndios “não foram simpáticos,” mas ficaram aquém do pior cenário,” Público, available online at: https://www.publico.pt/2019/09/02/sociedade/noticia/portugal-menos-8719-hectares-area-ardida-2018-1885282
Kotowicz, A. (2021), “Violência doméstica faz 32 mortes em 2020, menos do que no ano anterior. Há menos queixas, mas mais detidos,” Observador, available online at: https://observador.pt/2021/03/02/violencia-domestica-faz-32-mortes-em-2020-menos-do-que-no-ano-anterior-ha-menos-queixas-mas-mais-detidos/
Pordata, “Incêndios rurais e área ardida – Continente,” available online at: https://www.pordata.pt/Portugal/Incêndios+rurais+e+área+ardida+–+Continente-1192
Sistema de Segurança Interna, “Relatório Anual de Segurança Interna 2019,” available online at: https://www.portugal.gov.pt/download-ficheiros/ficheiro.aspx?v=%3d%3dBQAAAB%2bLCAAAAAAABAAzNDA0sAAAQJ%2bleAUAAAA%3d
Sistema de Segurança Interna, “Relatório Anual de Segurança Interna 2020,” available online at: https://www.portugal.gov.pt/download-ficheiros/ficheiro.aspx?v=%3d%3dBQAAAB%2bLCAAAAAAABAAzNDQ1NAUABR26oAUAAAA%3d
Overall, reported crime increased slightly in 2019 relative to 2018 (0.7%), with violent crime also rising (3%). In 2020, however, the country showed considerably lower levels of reported crime, with a decrease of 11% in total crime and 13.4% in violent crime relative to 2019. Undoubtedly, the restrictions caused by the pandemic contributed to this exceptional 2020 result.
Withing this generally positive picture, domestic violence constitutes a black spot. It was the most-reported crime in 2020, and there were 32 deaths associated with domestic violence, a decrease from 39 in 2018 and 37 in 2019.
Portugal remains a relatively safe country in international terms. Furthermore, Portugal has not experienced a terrorist attack of the kind witnessed in many other European countries. Whether this is due to effective intelligence gathering and policing or the priorities and preferences of potential terrorists is unclear.
In a previous SGI report, we noted the failure of civil-protection services during the 2017 forest fires, which resulted in over 100 deaths and over 500,000 hectares of burned land. While Portugal again experienced substantial forest fires in 2020, their impact was considerably more limited, though the total area burned was higher than in 2018 and 2019, and five firefighters died in combating the flames. These improvements are due to a more active policy framework with regard to forest fire prevention, with the government embarking on a number of forest fire prevention initiatives (e.g., strengthening the requirement for landowners to clear shrubbery that could otherwise fuel fires), as well as more favorable weather conditions than in 2017.
Citations:
Moutinho, A. R. (2020), “2020: números da época de incêndios “não foram simpáticos,” mas ficaram aquém do pior cenário,” Público, available online at: https://www.publico.pt/2019/09/02/sociedade/noticia/portugal-menos-8719-hectares-area-ardida-2018-1885282
Kotowicz, A. (2021), “Violência doméstica faz 32 mortes em 2020, menos do que no ano anterior. Há menos queixas, mas mais detidos,” Observador, available online at: https://observador.pt/2021/03/02/violencia-domestica-faz-32-mortes-em-2020-menos-do-que-no-ano-anterior-ha-menos-queixas-mas-mais-detidos/
Pordata, “Incêndios rurais e área ardida – Continente,” available online at: https://www.pordata.pt/Portugal/Incêndios+rurais+e+área+ardida+–+Continente-1192
Sistema de Segurança Interna, “Relatório Anual de Segurança Interna 2019,” available online at: https://www.portugal.gov.pt/download-ficheiros/ficheiro.aspx?v=%3d%3dBQAAAB%2bLCAAAAAAABAAzNDA0sAAAQJ%2bleAUAAAA%3d
Sistema de Segurança Interna, “Relatório Anual de Segurança Interna 2020,” available online at: https://www.portugal.gov.pt/download-ficheiros/ficheiro.aspx?v=%3d%3dBQAAAB%2bLCAAAAAAABAAzNDQ1NAUABR26oAUAAAA%3d
Graph View
To what extent does the government demonstrate an active and coherent commitment to promoting equal socioeconomic opportunities in low- and middle-income countries?
10
9
9
The government actively and coherently engages in international efforts to promote equal socioeconomic opportunities in low- and middle-income countries. It frequently demonstrates initiative and responsibility, and acts as an agenda-setter.
8
7
6
7
6
The government actively engages in international efforts to promote equal socioeconomic opportunities in low- and middle-income countries. However, some of its measures or policies lack coherence.
5
4
3
4
3
The government shows limited engagement in international efforts to promote equal socioeconomic opportunities in low- and middle-income countries. Many of its measures or policies lack coherence.
2
1
1
The government does not contribute (and often undermines) efforts to promote equal socioeconomic opportunities in low- and middle-income countries.
There has been virtually no change in this area vis-à-vis previous review periods. Foreign aid remains very much a secondary consideration in foreign policy, with the main interest being in economic diplomacy promoting the Portuguese economy and its exports. That does not mean that Portugal is disengaged – it still participates through the provision of foreign aid, especially in the Portuguese-speaking countries of Africa and East Timor. However, while there is some funding for foreign-aid projects, there is little concern with overarching aid policy, which means that coherence has not been as strong as it might be. This lack of interest has also percolated through to the design of international policies and the lack of international leadership in that regard. It must also be kept in mind that Portugal is a follower, not an international leader, and has very few resources. Therefore, while Portugal is supportive of good intentions, it is in fact marginal with regard to the implementation and design of foreign assistance.
However, if the question were to be shifted to include foreign involvement beyond the financial and economic sphere, then Portugal is a “supplier of security” through its fairly limited participation in UN, NATO, and EU security- and humanitarian-support missions. Furthermore, in specific instances such as Guinea-Bissau, Portugal is relatively very active in attempting to stabilize national governments, promote security and ultimately promote development.
However, if the question were to be shifted to include foreign involvement beyond the financial and economic sphere, then Portugal is a “supplier of security” through its fairly limited participation in UN, NATO, and EU security- and humanitarian-support missions. Furthermore, in specific instances such as Guinea-Bissau, Portugal is relatively very active in attempting to stabilize national governments, promote security and ultimately promote development.