Sensemaking
#14Key Findings
Australia’s score in the category of sensemaking places it within the sample’s middle ranks (rank 14).
Australian governments have shown increasing interest in strategic foresight, but the relevant institutions are not yet major players in policy circles.
Regulatory impact statements are required for significant regulatory proposals. These assess costs and benefits of the proposal and of alternative options. An Office of Impact Analysis provides support in making evidence-based assessments, including when evaluating environmental issues.
Government agencies often use evaluations by internal or external experts to assess existing programs. However, such initiatives vary widely in rigor, and depend on individual agency sponsors.
Australian governments have shown increasing interest in strategic foresight, but the relevant institutions are not yet major players in policy circles.
Regulatory impact statements are required for significant regulatory proposals. These assess costs and benefits of the proposal and of alternative options. An Office of Impact Analysis provides support in making evidence-based assessments, including when evaluating environmental issues.
Government agencies often use evaluations by internal or external experts to assess existing programs. However, such initiatives vary widely in rigor, and depend on individual agency sponsors.
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To what extent can the central government foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization?
10
9
9
The central government can foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
8
7
6
7
6
Most of the time, the central government can foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
5
4
3
4
3
The central government is rarely capable of fostering the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
2
1
1
The central government is not capable of fostering the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
Australian governments, both federal and state, have shown increasing interest in strategic foresight (BETA, 2023; DPC, 2023). Although still in early stages, new initiatives and training in this area are accelerating. The defense and intelligence communities have long appreciated strategic foresight in decision-making. Across the government, there is greater familiarity with behavioral economics, and specialized units have been created to spread knowledge of experimental and data-gathering approaches to ground policymaking rigorously.
A recent project by the Behavioral Economics Team of the Australian Government (BETA) involved investigating retention challenges in the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) workforce (BETA 2023). The advisory report noted high turnover rates (17%-25%) compared to similar organizations. The main reasons for leaving included high workload, concerns about service quality, and paperwork volume. BETA is designing and testing interventions to improve welfare and retention in the NDIS.
In summary, while attention to strategic foresight is increasing, the relevant institutions are still relatively new and not yet major players in policy circles.
Citations:
BETA. 2023. “BETA Projects.”Australian Government Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet. https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/projects
DPC. 2023. “Strategic Foresight.” Government of South Australia Department of the Premier and Cabinet. https://www.dpc.sa.gov.au/responsibilities/strategic-foresight
A recent project by the Behavioral Economics Team of the Australian Government (BETA) involved investigating retention challenges in the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) workforce (BETA 2023). The advisory report noted high turnover rates (17%-25%) compared to similar organizations. The main reasons for leaving included high workload, concerns about service quality, and paperwork volume. BETA is designing and testing interventions to improve welfare and retention in the NDIS.
In summary, while attention to strategic foresight is increasing, the relevant institutions are still relatively new and not yet major players in policy circles.
Citations:
BETA. 2023. “BETA Projects.”Australian Government Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet. https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/projects
DPC. 2023. “Strategic Foresight.” Government of South Australia Department of the Premier and Cabinet. https://www.dpc.sa.gov.au/responsibilities/strategic-foresight
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To what extent does the government conduct high-quality impact assessments to evaluate the potential effects of prepared legislation before implementation?
10
9
9
The government draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
8
7
6
7
6
In most cases, the government draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
5
4
3
4
3
The government rarely draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
2
1
1
The government does not draw on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
The Australian government provides a detailed framework for impact assessments and encourages its use, though it is not a legal requirement for new legislation. Regulatory impact statements (RIS) are notionally required for significant regulatory proposals. An RIS provides a formal assessment of the costs and benefits of a regulatory proposal and alternative options for that proposal, followed by a recommendation supporting the most effective and efficient option. RISs are thus not assessments of the socioeconomic impacts of regulatory proposals, although such impacts are implicitly taken into account as part of the process. In recent years, 75% to 85% of all Australian government proposals with “significant” impacts have been subject to a RIS. However, this proportion has been lower for proposals with “highly significant” impacts. Political considerations – including a party’s policy commitments, the preferences of the relevant minister, the influence of interest groups, and public opinion – appear to matter at least as much, if not more, than strict evidence-based decision-making.
To support the performance and uptake of systematic regulatory impact assessments, the government has established the Office of Impact Analysis (OIA) within the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (OIA 2023). The OIA supports departments to undertake evidence-based assessments of policy issues, providing support (including training) to help departments create rigorous impact assessments, and to efficiently implement the learnings from such reviews. As a hub for developing impact analysis practices, it also engages with international organizations like the OECD to develop best practices.
Citations:
OIA. 2023. “The Office of Impact Analysis: Developing the evidence base for decision-making.”Australian Government Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. https://oia.pmc.gov.au
To support the performance and uptake of systematic regulatory impact assessments, the government has established the Office of Impact Analysis (OIA) within the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (OIA 2023). The OIA supports departments to undertake evidence-based assessments of policy issues, providing support (including training) to help departments create rigorous impact assessments, and to efficiently implement the learnings from such reviews. As a hub for developing impact analysis practices, it also engages with international organizations like the OECD to develop best practices.
Citations:
OIA. 2023. “The Office of Impact Analysis: Developing the evidence base for decision-making.”Australian Government Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. https://oia.pmc.gov.au
To what extent does the government effectively incorporate sustainability assessments within the framework of RIAs?
10
9
9
High-quality sustainability assessments are incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
8
7
6
7
6
High-quality sustainability assessments are, for the most part, incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
5
4
3
4
3
High-quality sustainability assessments are rarely incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
2
1
1
Sustainability assessments are not incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
The Australian government has developed frameworks to account for environmental sustainability in regulatory impact statements. The Office of Impact Analysis (OIA) provides guidance on evaluating environmental assets, describing impacts, and accounting for uncertainty. In addition to these general frameworks, there are specific plans to preserve high-value environmental assets, like the Great Barrier Reef (DCCEEW 2023). Despite these frameworks, Australia’s emissions have not significantly decreased, and some high-emitting industries have increased outputs. Some assessments of the sustainability assessments (and other regulatory measures) suggest that the framework is new and therefore it is too early to assess its impact on actual practice, while others point to emerging loopholes and weak implementation as emerging issues (Kraner-Tucci 2022).
Citations:
OIA. 2023. “Environmental Valuation.” Office of Impact Analysis, Australian Government Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. https://oia.pmc.gov.au/resources/guidance-assessing-impacts/environmental-valuation
DCCEEW. 2023. “Climate Change.”Energy, the Environment and Water. https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/policy/environment
Kraner-Tucci, R. 2022. “Australia Ranks ‘Very Low’ on Climate Action Performance.” Pro Bono Australia. https://probonoaustralia.com.au/news/2022/11/australia-ranks-very-low-on-climate-action-performance/
Citations:
OIA. 2023. “Environmental Valuation.” Office of Impact Analysis, Australian Government Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. https://oia.pmc.gov.au/resources/guidance-assessing-impacts/environmental-valuation
DCCEEW. 2023. “Climate Change.”Energy, the Environment and Water. https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/policy/environment
Kraner-Tucci, R. 2022. “Australia Ranks ‘Very Low’ on Climate Action Performance.” Pro Bono Australia. https://probonoaustralia.com.au/news/2022/11/australia-ranks-very-low-on-climate-action-performance/
To what extent do government ministries utilize ex post evaluations to improve existing policies?
10
9
9
High-quality ex post evaluations serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
8
7
6
7
6
High-quality ex post evaluations frequently serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
5
4
3
4
3
High-quality ex post evaluations rarely serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
2
1
1
High-quality ex post evaluations are not utilized to make adjustments to public policies.
Government agencies often use evaluations by internal or external experts to understand the effectiveness of current practices and inform future improvements. The approach and rigor of these evaluations vary across government agencies and is not consistent within agencies. In other words, a lot depends on the sponsors of individual programs and their knowledge and appreciation of evaluation techniques.
High-quality evaluation needs to be embedded in policy design and implementation, which has not been the norm at any level of government. The establishment of the Australian Centre for Evaluation in October 2023 aims to mainstream high-quality evaluations and embed a culture of continuous improvement in public sector program development and implementation. The success of this initiative remains to be seen.
Citations:
The Treasury. 2023. “Commonwealth Evaluation Policy.”The Treasury, Australian Government. https://evaluation.treasury.gov.au/about/commonwealth-evaluation-policy
High-quality evaluation needs to be embedded in policy design and implementation, which has not been the norm at any level of government. The establishment of the Australian Centre for Evaluation in October 2023 aims to mainstream high-quality evaluations and embed a culture of continuous improvement in public sector program development and implementation. The success of this initiative remains to be seen.
Citations:
The Treasury. 2023. “Commonwealth Evaluation Policy.”The Treasury, Australian Government. https://evaluation.treasury.gov.au/about/commonwealth-evaluation-policy