Sensemaking
#18Key Findings
Belgium falls into the lower-middle ranks internationally (rank 18) in the area of sensemaking.
Belgium lacks a strong culture of anticipatory innovation and strategic foresight. The state works with external organizations like the OECD and European institutions for economic forecasting, but these external bodies are not fully integrated into Belgian government processes.
Regulatory impact assessments are often superficial. Environmental impact assessments are required, but their quality varies. There is no systematic ex post policy evaluation system, but individual bodies conduct reviews in some policy areas.
The complex federal system complicates sustainability policy. Regional and federal bodies often fail to agree on how to implement targets associated with policies such as the Green Deal. This can produce varying interpretations of “sustainable” across different levels.
Belgium lacks a strong culture of anticipatory innovation and strategic foresight. The state works with external organizations like the OECD and European institutions for economic forecasting, but these external bodies are not fully integrated into Belgian government processes.
Regulatory impact assessments are often superficial. Environmental impact assessments are required, but their quality varies. There is no systematic ex post policy evaluation system, but individual bodies conduct reviews in some policy areas.
The complex federal system complicates sustainability policy. Regional and federal bodies often fail to agree on how to implement targets associated with policies such as the Green Deal. This can produce varying interpretations of “sustainable” across different levels.
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Graph View
To what extent can the central government foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization?
10
9
9
The central government can foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
8
7
6
7
6
Most of the time, the central government can foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
5
4
3
4
3
The central government is rarely capable of fostering the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
2
1
1
The central government is not capable of fostering the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
Belgium has not developed a robust culture of anticipatory innovation and strategic foresight. However, it features several organizations that support economic forecasting and expert analysis. Notably, Brussels, as both the capital of Belgium and Europe, houses European institutions with strategic foresight units. Belgium regularly collaborates with these institutions and the OECD for its strategic thinking. Despite this, these remain external bodies, often imperfectly integrated into Belgian government procedures.
The oldest and most competent planning organization is the Federal Planning Bureau, founded in 1959. It has evolved into an expert and independent entity providing economic forecasts at multiple levels, quantitative analyses, technical support for greening the Belgian economy, and independent assessments of the financial sustainability of public finances. Recently, it was tasked with “costing” the main proposals of political parties before elections. Next to this well-structured (yet partly underfunded) bureau, Belgian governments have created a rather large number of supporting bodies that cover a broader range of topics. However, the distribution of resources can sometimes prevent each body from reaching critical mass, possibly by design, as each remains dependent on its minister and thus remains amenable.
Exceptions to this trend include the “BOSA” ministry at the federal level and the VARIO unit in Flanders, Belgium’s largest and wealthiest region. BOSA provides strategic support mainly for human resources purposes and is expanding its technical capacity, although it cannot impose a methodology on other ministries. VARIO provides strategic analysis for industrial policy and mobility (TomorrowLab 2024).
Citations:
Observatory of Public Sector Innovation (oecd-opsi.org)
https://www.plan.be/aboutus/institution_desc.php?lang=nl
OECD Review of the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau
https://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20161209_02616808
https://www.vlaanderen.be/departement-kanselarij-buitenlandse-zaken
Over Vario | VARIO: https://www.vario.be/nl/over-ons
https://www.tomorrowlab.com/cases/mobility-in-flanders
https://publicaties.vlaanderen.be/view-file/56338
https://www.tomorrowlab.com/cases/mobility-in-flanders
https://www.belgiantrain.be/nl/about-sncb/en-route-vers-mieux/innovation/innovation-lab
https://bosa.belgium.be/fr/themes/soutien-strategique/innovation/innover-au-sein-de-ladministration
annual report FPS BOSA A5l NL v2022 final.pdf
https://bosa.belgium.be/fr/themes/soutien-strategique
https://bosa.belgium.be/nl/themas/digitale-overheid
https://www.digitalwallonia.be/fr/
The oldest and most competent planning organization is the Federal Planning Bureau, founded in 1959. It has evolved into an expert and independent entity providing economic forecasts at multiple levels, quantitative analyses, technical support for greening the Belgian economy, and independent assessments of the financial sustainability of public finances. Recently, it was tasked with “costing” the main proposals of political parties before elections. Next to this well-structured (yet partly underfunded) bureau, Belgian governments have created a rather large number of supporting bodies that cover a broader range of topics. However, the distribution of resources can sometimes prevent each body from reaching critical mass, possibly by design, as each remains dependent on its minister and thus remains amenable.
Exceptions to this trend include the “BOSA” ministry at the federal level and the VARIO unit in Flanders, Belgium’s largest and wealthiest region. BOSA provides strategic support mainly for human resources purposes and is expanding its technical capacity, although it cannot impose a methodology on other ministries. VARIO provides strategic analysis for industrial policy and mobility (TomorrowLab 2024).
Citations:
Observatory of Public Sector Innovation (oecd-opsi.org)
https://www.plan.be/aboutus/institution_desc.php?lang=nl
OECD Review of the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau
https://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20161209_02616808
https://www.vlaanderen.be/departement-kanselarij-buitenlandse-zaken
Over Vario | VARIO: https://www.vario.be/nl/over-ons
https://www.tomorrowlab.com/cases/mobility-in-flanders
https://publicaties.vlaanderen.be/view-file/56338
https://www.tomorrowlab.com/cases/mobility-in-flanders
https://www.belgiantrain.be/nl/about-sncb/en-route-vers-mieux/innovation/innovation-lab
https://bosa.belgium.be/fr/themes/soutien-strategique/innovation/innover-au-sein-de-ladministration
annual report FPS BOSA A5l NL v2022 final.pdf
https://bosa.belgium.be/fr/themes/soutien-strategique
https://bosa.belgium.be/nl/themas/digitale-overheid
https://www.digitalwallonia.be/fr/
Graph View
To what extent does the government conduct high-quality impact assessments to evaluate the potential effects of prepared legislation before implementation?
10
9
9
The government draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
8
7
6
7
6
In most cases, the government draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
5
4
3
4
3
The government rarely draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
2
1
1
The government does not draw on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
In principle, RIAs are integral to the legislative process in Belgium, impacting environmental and population decisions. However, in practice, RIAs are often only superficially addressed. The OECD’s 2021 report states: “Belgium has not improved its institutional and policy framework for regulatory quality at the federal level over the last years. Regulatory impact assessment (RIA) is mandatory for all primary and for some subordinate legislation […] and is usually shared with social partners as a basis for consultation. RIAs for subordinate regulations are however no longer published. Belgium currently does not systematically require an identification and assessment of alternatives to the preferred policy option.” This places Belgium slightly below the OECD average (around 2.4 out of 4 primary law and 1.8 for subordinate regulations), with the quality of some evaluations being underwhelming and performed by ideologically aligned agencies.
Efforts are underway to improve this situation. The BOSA ministry, which offers technical support to other federal ministries, promotes “better regulation” and RIAs, mainly referencing European legislation and initiatives. However, the forms and evaluation reports are outdated, dating back to 2014 and 2015. Belgium’s regions can develop their own RIA rules. Flanders, the largest and wealthiest region, has a dedicated RIA webpage, with most documents dating back to 2012-2015. No similar resources were found for Wallonia or the Brussels Region.
Citations:
Betere regelgeving en impactanalyse | BOSA (belgium.be)
https://bosa.belgium.be/fr/themes/administration-numerique/simplification-administrative/meilleure-reglementation-et-analyse
RIA-databank | Vlaanderen Intern: https://overheid.vlaanderen.be/regelgeving/planning-en-opmaak-regelgeving/ria-databank
Leidraad voor de opmaak van een reguleringsimpactanalyse (RIA) | Vlaanderen.be https://www.vlaanderen.be/publicaties/leidraad-voor-de-opmaak-van-een-reguleringsimpactanalyse-ria
https://bosa.belgium.be/sites/default/files/content/documents/DTdocs/Simplification/AIR%20Manuel%20-%20FR%20oct2014.pdf
OECD. 2021. “OECD Regulatory Policy Outlook 2021 – Belgium country profile.” https://www.oecd.org/gov/regulatory-policy/belgium-country-profile-regulatory-policy-2021.pdf
Efforts are underway to improve this situation. The BOSA ministry, which offers technical support to other federal ministries, promotes “better regulation” and RIAs, mainly referencing European legislation and initiatives. However, the forms and evaluation reports are outdated, dating back to 2014 and 2015. Belgium’s regions can develop their own RIA rules. Flanders, the largest and wealthiest region, has a dedicated RIA webpage, with most documents dating back to 2012-2015. No similar resources were found for Wallonia or the Brussels Region.
Citations:
Betere regelgeving en impactanalyse | BOSA (belgium.be)
https://bosa.belgium.be/fr/themes/administration-numerique/simplification-administrative/meilleure-reglementation-et-analyse
RIA-databank | Vlaanderen Intern: https://overheid.vlaanderen.be/regelgeving/planning-en-opmaak-regelgeving/ria-databank
Leidraad voor de opmaak van een reguleringsimpactanalyse (RIA) | Vlaanderen.be https://www.vlaanderen.be/publicaties/leidraad-voor-de-opmaak-van-een-reguleringsimpactanalyse-ria
https://bosa.belgium.be/sites/default/files/content/documents/DTdocs/Simplification/AIR%20Manuel%20-%20FR%20oct2014.pdf
OECD. 2021. “OECD Regulatory Policy Outlook 2021 – Belgium country profile.” https://www.oecd.org/gov/regulatory-policy/belgium-country-profile-regulatory-policy-2021.pdf
To what extent does the government effectively incorporate sustainability assessments within the framework of RIAs?
10
9
9
High-quality sustainability assessments are incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
8
7
6
7
6
High-quality sustainability assessments are, for the most part, incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
5
4
3
4
3
High-quality sustainability assessments are rarely incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
2
1
1
Sustainability assessments are not incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
In 2007, Belgium added Article 7bis to its constitution, stating that various levels of power must “pursue the objectives of sustainable development in its social, economic, and environmental dimensions, taking into account intergenerational solidarity.” This legislation mandates environmental impact assessments for any significant policy before implementation. Despite being highly constraining on paper, implementation quality varies, and Belgium’s overall climate policy faces legal challenges.
Belgium’s main problem in achieving its SDG goals is typical of its institutional setup: governments are run by coalitions that have a hard time agreeing on a simple and clear policy direction, and the design of its federal system, one of “coordination” between the federal and federate entities, prevents the central authority from imposing policy targets on regions without negotiation. As a result, while the European Commission’s “Green Deal” assigns a number of targets to achieve, Belgium’s regional and federal levels never managed to agree on how to implement them.
Accordingly, Belgium’s sustainable development strategy encourages multiple actors to take action rather than implementing a coordinated top-down policy. Actions are inventoried on the dedicated website sdgs.be, which highlights efforts by companies, trade unions, mutual societies, NGOs, schools, youth movements, and citizens. However, this inclusive approach can lead to fragmented outcomes, with varied interpretations of “sustainable” across different state levels.
Citations:
https://www.lesoir.be/541949/article/2023-10-07/six-enseignements-de-laffaire-climat
https://www.oecd.org/gov/regulatory-policy/Impact-assessment-in-Belgium-June-2015%20fr.pdf
Sustainable Development Report 2023 (sdgindex.org)
Indicateurs de développement durable (vlaanderen.be)
Belgium country profile – SDGs and the environment – European Environment Agency (europa.eu)
SDG Index and Dashboards Report for European Cities – CIFAL Flanders (cifal-flanders.org)
Leidraad voor de opmaak van een reguleringsimpactanalyse (RIA) | Vlaanderen.be
https://bosa.belgium.be/sites/default/files/content/documents/DTdocs/Simplification/AIR%20Manuel%20-%20FR%20oct2014.pdf
Belgium’s main problem in achieving its SDG goals is typical of its institutional setup: governments are run by coalitions that have a hard time agreeing on a simple and clear policy direction, and the design of its federal system, one of “coordination” between the federal and federate entities, prevents the central authority from imposing policy targets on regions without negotiation. As a result, while the European Commission’s “Green Deal” assigns a number of targets to achieve, Belgium’s regional and federal levels never managed to agree on how to implement them.
Accordingly, Belgium’s sustainable development strategy encourages multiple actors to take action rather than implementing a coordinated top-down policy. Actions are inventoried on the dedicated website sdgs.be, which highlights efforts by companies, trade unions, mutual societies, NGOs, schools, youth movements, and citizens. However, this inclusive approach can lead to fragmented outcomes, with varied interpretations of “sustainable” across different state levels.
Citations:
https://www.lesoir.be/541949/article/2023-10-07/six-enseignements-de-laffaire-climat
https://www.oecd.org/gov/regulatory-policy/Impact-assessment-in-Belgium-June-2015%20fr.pdf
Sustainable Development Report 2023 (sdgindex.org)
Indicateurs de développement durable (vlaanderen.be)
Belgium country profile – SDGs and the environment – European Environment Agency (europa.eu)
SDG Index and Dashboards Report for European Cities – CIFAL Flanders (cifal-flanders.org)
Leidraad voor de opmaak van een reguleringsimpactanalyse (RIA) | Vlaanderen.be
https://bosa.belgium.be/sites/default/files/content/documents/DTdocs/Simplification/AIR%20Manuel%20-%20FR%20oct2014.pdf
To what extent do government ministries utilize ex post evaluations to improve existing policies?
10
9
9
High-quality ex post evaluations serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
8
7
6
7
6
High-quality ex post evaluations frequently serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
5
4
3
4
3
High-quality ex post evaluations rarely serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
2
1
1
High-quality ex post evaluations are not utilized to make adjustments to public policies.
There is no systematic ex post policy evaluation in Belgium, especially for its most important institutional arrangements. However, several bodies conduct ex post policy evaluations in areas such as employment, economic policy, discrimination, and budget (see Varone and Magdalijns 2000). The OECD scores Belgium’s ex post policy evaluation policy at 1.4 out of 4, which is above the OECD average. Hence, while very weak in absolute terms, it appears decent in comparative terms.
Belgium’s numerous quality universities lead to regular academic evaluations of public policies, often commissioned and financed by public bodies. However, these study results are not typically integrated into the process of updating and improving actual policy.
Citations:
https://www.oecd.org/gov/regulatory-policy/Impact-assessment-in-Belgium-June-2015%20fr.pdf
Varone, F., and C. Magdalijns. 2000. “L’évaluation des politiques publiques en Belgique: théorie, pratiques et défis.” Pyramides. Revue du Centre d’études et de recherches en administration publique (1): 55-84.
Belgium’s numerous quality universities lead to regular academic evaluations of public policies, often commissioned and financed by public bodies. However, these study results are not typically integrated into the process of updating and improving actual policy.
Citations:
https://www.oecd.org/gov/regulatory-policy/Impact-assessment-in-Belgium-June-2015%20fr.pdf
Varone, F., and C. Magdalijns. 2000. “L’évaluation des politiques publiques en Belgique: théorie, pratiques et défis.” Pyramides. Revue du Centre d’études et de recherches en administration publique (1): 55-84.