Sensemaking
#4Key Findings
Estonia falls into the top ranks internationally (rank 4) with regard to sensemaking.
A parliamentary think tank called the Foresight Center conducts long-term social and economic analyses. However, strategic planning efforts lag due to difficulties in reaching consensus even on short-term goals. The government office’s Strategy Unit has expanded its focus on policy innovation.
Preliminary regulatory impact assessments (RIAs) are prepared for primary laws, but full RIAs are rarely conducted. The issue of sustainability is included in RIA guidelines, but in practice plays a minor role in the impact assessment process.
The government office Strategy Unit oversees policymaking quality and evaluates the effectiveness of policies, typically three to five years after implementation. These evaluations cover areas like competition, administrative burdens, and regulatory overlap.
A parliamentary think tank called the Foresight Center conducts long-term social and economic analyses. However, strategic planning efforts lag due to difficulties in reaching consensus even on short-term goals. The government office’s Strategy Unit has expanded its focus on policy innovation.
Preliminary regulatory impact assessments (RIAs) are prepared for primary laws, but full RIAs are rarely conducted. The issue of sustainability is included in RIA guidelines, but in practice plays a minor role in the impact assessment process.
The government office Strategy Unit oversees policymaking quality and evaluates the effectiveness of policies, typically three to five years after implementation. These evaluations cover areas like competition, administrative burdens, and regulatory overlap.
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To what extent can the central government foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization?
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9
9
The central government can foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
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7
6
7
6
Most of the time, the central government can foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
5
4
3
4
3
The central government is rarely capable of fostering the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
2
1
1
The central government is not capable of fostering the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
The Foresight Center (FC), a parliamentary think tank, has been active since 2017 and conducts long-term social and economic analyses, as well as drafting development scenarios. However, foresight and strategic planning efforts are still lagging, partly because successive governments have struggled to agree even on short-term goals. The FC consults with parliamentary committees but has only an implicit connection to the executive. The Estonian foresight system was inspired by Finland (OECD 2023).
The Foresight Act serves as the legal basis for the institutionalization of foresight in Estonia. This act established the Foresight Council, which consists of experts in the research, technology and business fields, along with the FC. The council approves the FC’s activities. The center envisions possible future scenarios for policymakers and makes the inclusion and participation of the wider public mandatory. The center conducts ex post assessments of previous foresight work after a certain period, essentially incorporating an evaluation component that compares actual progress to scenarios and outlooks over time.
One important step in successful foresight institutionalization is developing means of highlighting foresight’s impact within the government. These processes enable the country to monitor the impact of foresight based on political discussions and parliamentary debates, among other measures.
In addition to FC, the GO Strategy Unit has also begun to innovate more extensively. The Innovation Program 2022 has brought together Innotiim, Accelerate Estonia, export agencies, and the State Chancellery to identify pressing issues within the public sector, and assists teams in reaching innovative and human-centered solutions. The new program differs from previous development programs in that all selected teams go through the phases of understanding the problem and developing solution ideas simultaneously. In the second stage, it is possible to test innovative solutions with support provided by the most suitable program, potentially through the State Chancellery’s new public sector innovation measure. Several guidelines, created in conjunction with universities and think tanks, are also available to support and guide innovations and intervention research in the public sector.
Citations:
OECD. 2023. “Foresight and Anticipatory Governance in Practice. Lessons in effective foresight institutionalization.” https://www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight/ourwork/Foresight_and_Anticipatory_Governance.pdf
Innovation Team in GO https://www.riigikantselei.ee/innotiim
https://oecd-opsi.org/blog/people-gov-digital-innovation-in-government-is-about-solving-peoples-problems/
The Foresight Act serves as the legal basis for the institutionalization of foresight in Estonia. This act established the Foresight Council, which consists of experts in the research, technology and business fields, along with the FC. The council approves the FC’s activities. The center envisions possible future scenarios for policymakers and makes the inclusion and participation of the wider public mandatory. The center conducts ex post assessments of previous foresight work after a certain period, essentially incorporating an evaluation component that compares actual progress to scenarios and outlooks over time.
One important step in successful foresight institutionalization is developing means of highlighting foresight’s impact within the government. These processes enable the country to monitor the impact of foresight based on political discussions and parliamentary debates, among other measures.
In addition to FC, the GO Strategy Unit has also begun to innovate more extensively. The Innovation Program 2022 has brought together Innotiim, Accelerate Estonia, export agencies, and the State Chancellery to identify pressing issues within the public sector, and assists teams in reaching innovative and human-centered solutions. The new program differs from previous development programs in that all selected teams go through the phases of understanding the problem and developing solution ideas simultaneously. In the second stage, it is possible to test innovative solutions with support provided by the most suitable program, potentially through the State Chancellery’s new public sector innovation measure. Several guidelines, created in conjunction with universities and think tanks, are also available to support and guide innovations and intervention research in the public sector.
Citations:
OECD. 2023. “Foresight and Anticipatory Governance in Practice. Lessons in effective foresight institutionalization.” https://www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight/ourwork/Foresight_and_Anticipatory_Governance.pdf
Innovation Team in GO https://www.riigikantselei.ee/innotiim
https://oecd-opsi.org/blog/people-gov-digital-innovation-in-government-is-about-solving-peoples-problems/
Graph View
To what extent does the government conduct high-quality impact assessments to evaluate the potential effects of prepared legislation before implementation?
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9
9
The government draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
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7
6
In most cases, the government draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
5
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3
4
3
The government rarely draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
2
1
1
The government does not draw on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
Preliminary regulatory impact assessments (RIAs) are prepared for all primary laws and selected subordinate regulations. Although full RIAs are rarely conducted, simplified RIAs are included (OECD 2022). The Legislative Quality Division within the Ministry of Justice reviews the quality of RIAs and can return them for revision if they do not meet quality standards. This division is also responsible for the systematic improvement and evaluation of regulatory policy, and reports annually to parliament. Additionally, the division issues RIA guidelines and scrutinizes the legal quality of draft regulations. Complementing this work, the GO Strategy Unit coordinates stakeholder engagement in policymaking across the government. The GO office’s EU Secretariat handles coordination regarding EU law and its transposition.
Estonia places a strong focus on accessibility and transparency of regulatory policy through the use of online tools. The EIS online information system tracks all legislative developments and makes regulatory impact assessments available on a central portal. However, EIS remains rather passive, serving as a good source of information but not for interaction (Elbrecht 2023). For public consultations, other channels – such as ministries’ websites and social media platforms – are used to disseminate information in addition to EIS.
One of the recent concerns has been amendments related to the State Budget Act, which implemented activity-based budgeting. According to many experts (ERR 2022), this process has made the budgeting logic opaque, hindering the involvement of a broad range of stakeholders in consultation activities, but also meaningful parliamentary debate.
Citations:
Elbrecht, G. 2023. “Riigireformist ja riigivalitsemise tulevikust (About State Reform and the Future of State Governance in Estonia).” Riigikogu Toimetised 2023, 48. https://rito.riigikogu.ee/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/81-94_Fookus-Elbrecht.pdf
ERR. 2022. “State Budget Act set for further amendment.” https://news.err.ee/1608755332/state-budget-act-set-for-further-amendment
OECD. 2022. Better Regulation Practices across the European Union 2022. Paris: OECD Publishing.
Estonia places a strong focus on accessibility and transparency of regulatory policy through the use of online tools. The EIS online information system tracks all legislative developments and makes regulatory impact assessments available on a central portal. However, EIS remains rather passive, serving as a good source of information but not for interaction (Elbrecht 2023). For public consultations, other channels – such as ministries’ websites and social media platforms – are used to disseminate information in addition to EIS.
One of the recent concerns has been amendments related to the State Budget Act, which implemented activity-based budgeting. According to many experts (ERR 2022), this process has made the budgeting logic opaque, hindering the involvement of a broad range of stakeholders in consultation activities, but also meaningful parliamentary debate.
Citations:
Elbrecht, G. 2023. “Riigireformist ja riigivalitsemise tulevikust (About State Reform and the Future of State Governance in Estonia).” Riigikogu Toimetised 2023, 48. https://rito.riigikogu.ee/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/81-94_Fookus-Elbrecht.pdf
ERR. 2022. “State Budget Act set for further amendment.” https://news.err.ee/1608755332/state-budget-act-set-for-further-amendment
OECD. 2022. Better Regulation Practices across the European Union 2022. Paris: OECD Publishing.
To what extent does the government effectively incorporate sustainability assessments within the framework of RIAs?
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High-quality sustainability assessments are incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
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High-quality sustainability assessments are, for the most part, incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
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High-quality sustainability assessments are rarely incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
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Sustainability assessments are not incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
The dimension of sustainability is included in the methodological guidelines for RIA. The guidelines demand an assessment of the reviewed policy’s impact over the short, medium and long term. However, sustainability concerns play a marginal role in the overall impact assessment process. The existing set of indicators is not explicitly linked to a sustainability check. Estonia’s long-term strategy, Estonia 2035, presents an integrated vision for the country’s balanced and sustainable development. Nine national priorities, outlined in the strategy, explicitly reference the 17 Sustainable Development Goals.
To what extent do government ministries utilize ex post evaluations to improve existing policies?
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High-quality ex post evaluations serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
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High-quality ex post evaluations frequently serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
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High-quality ex post evaluations rarely serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
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High-quality ex post evaluations are not utilized to make adjustments to public policies.
The GO’s Strategy Unit is responsible for the overall quality of policymaking, including the evaluation of policy effectiveness and the development of a knowledge base for future reforms. In general, ex post evaluations take place three to five years after the implementation of the regulation and cover areas such as competition, administrative burdens and regulatory overlap. The first ex post evaluations were undertaken in 2018. More recently, in-depth reviews have begun in some policy areas, but the evaluation framework is not fully established yet. The publication of ex post evaluations remains at the discretion of the relevant minister. The objective of increasing the proportion of ex post evaluations was set out in the strategy document Principles for Legislative Policy until 2030, adopted in November 2020. The GO has taken several steps toward developing the culture and improving the awareness of impact assessments.