Sensemaking
#23Key Findings
Ireland performs relatively poorly (rank 23) in the category of sensemaking.
Irish policymaking tends to focus on short- and medium-term timeframes. A overreliance on single forecasts, without considering multiple scenarios, has led to negative outcomes. Strategic foresight and anticipatory governance remain peripheral in high-level civil service skills.
Regulatory impact assessments are required before policy decisions are made. However, the assessments are mostly qualitative, and the OECD has criticized their quality. Instructions include reference to issues such as the environment, but provide little tangible guidance.
Ex post evaluations are not legally required or systematically conducted. It is unclear whether such assessments lead to changes in existing or new legislation.
Irish policymaking tends to focus on short- and medium-term timeframes. A overreliance on single forecasts, without considering multiple scenarios, has led to negative outcomes. Strategic foresight and anticipatory governance remain peripheral in high-level civil service skills.
Regulatory impact assessments are required before policy decisions are made. However, the assessments are mostly qualitative, and the OECD has criticized their quality. Instructions include reference to issues such as the environment, but provide little tangible guidance.
Ex post evaluations are not legally required or systematically conducted. It is unclear whether such assessments lead to changes in existing or new legislation.
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To what extent can the central government foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization?
10
9
9
The central government can foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
8
7
6
7
6
Most of the time, the central government can foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
5
4
3
4
3
The central government is rarely capable of fostering the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
2
1
1
The central government is not capable of fostering the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
Irish policymaking is largely defined by short and medium-term timescales. Consequently, policy and supporting analysis almost exclusively rely on predictive forecasting, with limited evolution over the past two decades. While central statistics office population projections and climate impact analyses are notable exceptions, most policy development relies on single forecasts, including key areas such as economic and fiscal management and environmental policy, including emissions reduction. This over-reliance on uncertain forecasts has had severe consequences for the economy, notably playing a role in the 2008 financial crisis and recession (O’Mahony et al. 2023). It has also significantly impacted environmental priorities of sustainability and climate action, as technological forecasts have narrowed the scope of solutions, leading to unsustainable development paths (O’Mahony 2010) and practices that are out-of-step with international standards (O’Mahony and Torney, 2023). The lack of methodological diversity has been a significant constraint on policy innovation for sustainable development (Torney and O’Mahony 2023).
The default approach in Irish public policymaking has been to avoid using multiple scenarios or to consider them in a highly constrained fashion. For instance, Ireland’s National Development Plan to 2030 (Government of Ireland 2021a) and the National Planning Framework to 2040 (Government of Ireland 2021b) are based on a single population projection from the ESRI, with minor variations in internal migration patterns (Morgenroth 2018). Consequently, strategic national policy and planning for economic development, services, infrastructure and spatial planning are not adequately prepared for high levels of uncertainty, as alternative population scenarios and variations in other key drivers are not applied. Similarly, the national Housing Need and Demand Assessments use the same constrained projections, with only minor variations in variables such as incomes and prices (DHLGH, 2021). This limited approach to scenario planning increases the risk of policy failures, with significant consequences for social, environmental and economic objectives. It also curtails the potential for strategic policy innovations that can achieve synergies and pursue opportunities, a problem evident in national planning and policy for emissions mitigation and energy, which also rely on single forecasts (O’Mahony and Torney 2023).
Science Foundation Ireland is beginning to support test beds and new ideas, yet strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation and governance are still peripheral to the skills and capacities of high-level civil servants. The Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service (IGEES) was established in response to recognized weaknesses in strategic planning and capacity skills within the Irish government (Wright 2010). However, IGEES has yet to substantially engage with strategic foresight approaches. Recognizing the limitations of current policy development approaches, there is growing interest in the application of strategic foresight and anticipatory governance (OPSI/OECD 2021). Building capacity in these areas, starting from a peripheral public policy activity, can facilitate the application of these approaches, harnessing the innovative mindset evident in Ireland’s economic development in the 20th century and more recently in response to COVID-19. Accordingly, the OECD report on the Irish public service emphasizes the need to develop capabilities for strategic foresight (OECD 2023).
Citations:
Government of Ireland. 2021. “National Development Plan 2021-2030.” https://assets.gov.ie/200358/a36dd274-736c-4d04-8879-b158e8b95029.pdf
Government of Ireland. 2021. “Project Ireland 2040 National Planning Framework.” https://www.npf.ie/wp-content/uploads/Project-Ireland-2040-NPF.pdf
Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage (DHLGH). 2021. “Guidance on the Preparation of a Housing Need and Demand Assessment.” https://assets.gov.ie/132183/3df9e1b7-c8b7-4da2-a11e-e5c933451f27.pdf
Morgenroth, E. 2018. Prospects for Irish Regions and Counties: Scenarios and Implications. Dublin: ESRI Research Series.
NUMBER 70 https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/RS70_0.pdf
O’Mahony, T., Luukkanen, J., Vehmas, J., and Kaivo-oja, J.R.L. 2023. “Time to Build a New Practice of Foresight for National Economies? Ireland, and Uncertain Futures in Forecasts and Scenarios.” Foresight. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-10-2021-0191
OPSI/ OECD. 2021. “Towards a Strategic Foresight System in Ireland.” https://oecd-opsi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Strategic-Foresight-in-Ireland.pdf
O’Mahony, T. 2010. Energy-Related Carbon Emissions in Ireland: Scenarios to 2020. Dublin: Technological University Dublin.
O’Mahony, T., and D. Torney. 2023. Transforming Development: Economy, Innovation and Finance. Volume 4 of Irish Climate Change Assessment. https://www.epa.ie/publications/monitoring–assessment/climate-change/ICCA_Volume-4.pdf
OECD. 2023. Strengthening Policy Development in the Public Sector in Ireland. OECD Public Governance Reviews. https://doi.org/10.1787/6724d155-en
Torney, D., and T. O’Mahony. 2023. “Transforming Governance and Policy.” In Irish Climate Change Assessment, Vol. 4, Chapter 7. https://www.epa.ie/publications/monitoring–assessment/climate-change/ICCA_Volume-4.pdf
Wright, R. 2010. Strengthening the Capacity of the Department of Finance: Report of the Independent Review Panel. Dublin: Independent Review Panel.
The default approach in Irish public policymaking has been to avoid using multiple scenarios or to consider them in a highly constrained fashion. For instance, Ireland’s National Development Plan to 2030 (Government of Ireland 2021a) and the National Planning Framework to 2040 (Government of Ireland 2021b) are based on a single population projection from the ESRI, with minor variations in internal migration patterns (Morgenroth 2018). Consequently, strategic national policy and planning for economic development, services, infrastructure and spatial planning are not adequately prepared for high levels of uncertainty, as alternative population scenarios and variations in other key drivers are not applied. Similarly, the national Housing Need and Demand Assessments use the same constrained projections, with only minor variations in variables such as incomes and prices (DHLGH, 2021). This limited approach to scenario planning increases the risk of policy failures, with significant consequences for social, environmental and economic objectives. It also curtails the potential for strategic policy innovations that can achieve synergies and pursue opportunities, a problem evident in national planning and policy for emissions mitigation and energy, which also rely on single forecasts (O’Mahony and Torney 2023).
Science Foundation Ireland is beginning to support test beds and new ideas, yet strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation and governance are still peripheral to the skills and capacities of high-level civil servants. The Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service (IGEES) was established in response to recognized weaknesses in strategic planning and capacity skills within the Irish government (Wright 2010). However, IGEES has yet to substantially engage with strategic foresight approaches. Recognizing the limitations of current policy development approaches, there is growing interest in the application of strategic foresight and anticipatory governance (OPSI/OECD 2021). Building capacity in these areas, starting from a peripheral public policy activity, can facilitate the application of these approaches, harnessing the innovative mindset evident in Ireland’s economic development in the 20th century and more recently in response to COVID-19. Accordingly, the OECD report on the Irish public service emphasizes the need to develop capabilities for strategic foresight (OECD 2023).
Citations:
Government of Ireland. 2021. “National Development Plan 2021-2030.” https://assets.gov.ie/200358/a36dd274-736c-4d04-8879-b158e8b95029.pdf
Government of Ireland. 2021. “Project Ireland 2040 National Planning Framework.” https://www.npf.ie/wp-content/uploads/Project-Ireland-2040-NPF.pdf
Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage (DHLGH). 2021. “Guidance on the Preparation of a Housing Need and Demand Assessment.” https://assets.gov.ie/132183/3df9e1b7-c8b7-4da2-a11e-e5c933451f27.pdf
Morgenroth, E. 2018. Prospects for Irish Regions and Counties: Scenarios and Implications. Dublin: ESRI Research Series.
NUMBER 70 https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/RS70_0.pdf
O’Mahony, T., Luukkanen, J., Vehmas, J., and Kaivo-oja, J.R.L. 2023. “Time to Build a New Practice of Foresight for National Economies? Ireland, and Uncertain Futures in Forecasts and Scenarios.” Foresight. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-10-2021-0191
OPSI/ OECD. 2021. “Towards a Strategic Foresight System in Ireland.” https://oecd-opsi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Strategic-Foresight-in-Ireland.pdf
O’Mahony, T. 2010. Energy-Related Carbon Emissions in Ireland: Scenarios to 2020. Dublin: Technological University Dublin.
O’Mahony, T., and D. Torney. 2023. Transforming Development: Economy, Innovation and Finance. Volume 4 of Irish Climate Change Assessment. https://www.epa.ie/publications/monitoring–assessment/climate-change/ICCA_Volume-4.pdf
OECD. 2023. Strengthening Policy Development in the Public Sector in Ireland. OECD Public Governance Reviews. https://doi.org/10.1787/6724d155-en
Torney, D., and T. O’Mahony. 2023. “Transforming Governance and Policy.” In Irish Climate Change Assessment, Vol. 4, Chapter 7. https://www.epa.ie/publications/monitoring–assessment/climate-change/ICCA_Volume-4.pdf
Wright, R. 2010. Strengthening the Capacity of the Department of Finance: Report of the Independent Review Panel. Dublin: Independent Review Panel.
Graph View
To what extent does the government conduct high-quality impact assessments to evaluate the potential effects of prepared legislation before implementation?
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9
9
The government draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
8
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7
6
In most cases, the government draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
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3
4
3
The government rarely draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
2
1
1
The government does not draw on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
Departments are required to conduct and publish Regulatory Impact Assessments (RIAs) before making decisions on regulatory changes. This requirement arises from guidelines issued by the Department of the Taoiseach in 2009, rather than from legislative mandates.
The OECD has been critical of this practice, noting that RIAs are largely qualitative and that levels of ex post assessment may not be sufficient (OECD 2021). Despite the OECD’s recommendation to establish an oversight and scrutiny body with the mandate to ensure and review RIAs, the practice of completing and, more importantly, publishing RIAs has lagged. While Ireland scored high on the adoption and methodology of RIAs, it scored low on oversight and transparency (OECD 2021). There is a perception that key skills and a proofing culture have not been developed, except where required for international oversight. This expedience applies not only to RIAs but also to other forms of proofing, which are rarely binding and unevenly practiced. These include proofing, budgeting and auditing for gender, equality, poverty, rural issues, employment and competitiveness. The situation remains as described by the OECD (Scott 2022).
Citations:
OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development). 2021. OECD Regulatory Policy Outlook 2021. OECD. https://www.oecd.org/publications/oecd-regulatory-policy-outlook-2021-38b0fdb1-en
Scott, C. 2022. The politics of regulation in Ireland Oxford, OUP: 647, 66-7.
The OECD has been critical of this practice, noting that RIAs are largely qualitative and that levels of ex post assessment may not be sufficient (OECD 2021). Despite the OECD’s recommendation to establish an oversight and scrutiny body with the mandate to ensure and review RIAs, the practice of completing and, more importantly, publishing RIAs has lagged. While Ireland scored high on the adoption and methodology of RIAs, it scored low on oversight and transparency (OECD 2021). There is a perception that key skills and a proofing culture have not been developed, except where required for international oversight. This expedience applies not only to RIAs but also to other forms of proofing, which are rarely binding and unevenly practiced. These include proofing, budgeting and auditing for gender, equality, poverty, rural issues, employment and competitiveness. The situation remains as described by the OECD (Scott 2022).
Citations:
OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development). 2021. OECD Regulatory Policy Outlook 2021. OECD. https://www.oecd.org/publications/oecd-regulatory-policy-outlook-2021-38b0fdb1-en
Scott, C. 2022. The politics of regulation in Ireland Oxford, OUP: 647, 66-7.
To what extent does the government effectively incorporate sustainability assessments within the framework of RIAs?
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9
9
High-quality sustainability assessments are incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
8
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6
High-quality sustainability assessments are, for the most part, incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
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High-quality sustainability assessments are rarely incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
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1
Sustainability assessments are not incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
Ireland’s most recent assessment of its sustainable development strategy, based on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), was conducted in October 2022 (DECC 2022). This assessment suggests that the strategy is actively implemented. However, when Ireland’s performance in achieving the environmental SDGs is benchmarked against peer nations in the EU, the results indicate that capacity-building for implementation was poor (Murphy et al. 2023).
While RIA is effectively mandatory for all primary laws and major subordinate regulations, and the environment is one of seven focus areas, the assessments are largely qualitative (OECD 2021). The current national guidelines, which have been in place since 2009, provide little guidance on sustainability beyond mentioning “environment,” “poverty” and “socially excluded or vulnerable groups.” This suggests that the guidance is both outdated and inadequate for addressing the complexity of sustainable development tasks.
Citations:
https://www.gov.ie/en/policy-information/ff4201-17-sustainable-development-goals/
Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications (DECC). 2022. Policy Update on Ireland’s Implementation of the Sustainable Development Goal Targets. Ireland: Government Publication.
O’ Riordan, T. 2024. Ireland’s Climate Change Assessment: An Independent Review. Wexford: EPA.
Murphy, E. et al. 2023. “Nation-Based Peer Assessment of Europe’s Sustainable Development Goal Performance.” PLoS ONE 18 (6): e0287771. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287771
OECD. 2021. OECD Environmental Performance Reviews: Ireland 2021. https://doi.org/10.1787/9ef10b4f-en
While RIA is effectively mandatory for all primary laws and major subordinate regulations, and the environment is one of seven focus areas, the assessments are largely qualitative (OECD 2021). The current national guidelines, which have been in place since 2009, provide little guidance on sustainability beyond mentioning “environment,” “poverty” and “socially excluded or vulnerable groups.” This suggests that the guidance is both outdated and inadequate for addressing the complexity of sustainable development tasks.
Citations:
https://www.gov.ie/en/policy-information/ff4201-17-sustainable-development-goals/
Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications (DECC). 2022. Policy Update on Ireland’s Implementation of the Sustainable Development Goal Targets. Ireland: Government Publication.
O’ Riordan, T. 2024. Ireland’s Climate Change Assessment: An Independent Review. Wexford: EPA.
Murphy, E. et al. 2023. “Nation-Based Peer Assessment of Europe’s Sustainable Development Goal Performance.” PLoS ONE 18 (6): e0287771. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287771
OECD. 2021. OECD Environmental Performance Reviews: Ireland 2021. https://doi.org/10.1787/9ef10b4f-en
To what extent do government ministries utilize ex post evaluations to improve existing policies?
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9
9
High-quality ex post evaluations serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
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7
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High-quality ex post evaluations frequently serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
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High-quality ex post evaluations rarely serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
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1
High-quality ex post evaluations are not utilized to make adjustments to public policies.
The Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service (IGEES) is an integrated cross-government service aimed at enhancing the role of economics and value-for-money analysis in public policymaking. IGEES has increased the number of ante and ex post policy evaluations and economic analyses throughout the Irish Civil Service in areas such as economic growth, social exclusion, service delivery and policy design. However, ex post assessment is not a legal requirement, and the OECD has determined that levels of ex post assessment may not be sufficient, particularly in the context of environmental and sustainability issues (OECD 2021). Despite the establishment of IGEES, the Irish civil service struggles with conducting impact assessments and modeling impacts across different policy dimensions, reflecting insufficient analytical competence (OECD 2023). While IGEES has improved capacity, there remains a dominance of neoclassical economics, often excluding critical social and sustainability sciences, as well as heterodox approaches to economics.
Ex post evaluations are not systematically applied to existing public policies, and it is unclear whether these evaluations lead to changes in existing or new legislation. In the context of cost-benefit analysis (CBA), which can be applied to either ex ante or ex post evaluation, there are concerns that analyses may meet national standards but fall below international minimum standards (O’Mahony 2018). O’Mahony’s review highlighted several deficiencies, including an excessively high discount rate (O’Mahony, 2021a) and short time horizons of analysis (O’Mahony 2021b). These factors materially affect cost-benefit ratios, devaluing the costs of environmentally damaging activities and undervaluing the benefits of projects and policies aimed at transitioning to sustainability. Regarding CBA, there are notable concerns about transparency in Ireland. The default position often avoids publishing results or only publishes partial information, despite the requirements of the Aarhus Convention and the Access to Information on the Environment (AIE) regulations (O’Mahony 2018; Morgenroth 2011).
Citations:
Morgenroth, E. 2011. “How Can We Improve Evaluation Methods for Public Infrastructure?”
Renewal Series Paper 2. Economic and Social Research Institute. https://www.esri.ie/pubs/EC002.pdf
OECD. 2021. OECD Environmental Performance Reviews: Ireland 2021. OECD iLibrary. https://doi.org/10.1787/9ef10b4f-en
OECD. 2023. Strengthening Policy Development in the Public Sector in Ireland. OECD Public Governance Reviews. https://doi.org/10.1787/6724d155-en
O’Mahony, T. 2018. Appraisal in Transition: 21st Century Challenges and Updating CBA in Ireland. Tadhg O’Mahony Consulting/National Economic and Social Development Office. http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.32515.76322
O’Mahony, T. 2021. “Cost-benefit Analysis in a Climate of Change: Setting Social Discount Rates in the Case of Ireland.” Green Finance 3 (2): 175-197.
O’Mahony, T. 2021. “Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Environment: The Time Horizon Is of the Essence.” Environmental Impact Assessment Review 89: 106587.
Ex post evaluations are not systematically applied to existing public policies, and it is unclear whether these evaluations lead to changes in existing or new legislation. In the context of cost-benefit analysis (CBA), which can be applied to either ex ante or ex post evaluation, there are concerns that analyses may meet national standards but fall below international minimum standards (O’Mahony 2018). O’Mahony’s review highlighted several deficiencies, including an excessively high discount rate (O’Mahony, 2021a) and short time horizons of analysis (O’Mahony 2021b). These factors materially affect cost-benefit ratios, devaluing the costs of environmentally damaging activities and undervaluing the benefits of projects and policies aimed at transitioning to sustainability. Regarding CBA, there are notable concerns about transparency in Ireland. The default position often avoids publishing results or only publishes partial information, despite the requirements of the Aarhus Convention and the Access to Information on the Environment (AIE) regulations (O’Mahony 2018; Morgenroth 2011).
Citations:
Morgenroth, E. 2011. “How Can We Improve Evaluation Methods for Public Infrastructure?”
Renewal Series Paper 2. Economic and Social Research Institute. https://www.esri.ie/pubs/EC002.pdf
OECD. 2021. OECD Environmental Performance Reviews: Ireland 2021. OECD iLibrary. https://doi.org/10.1787/9ef10b4f-en
OECD. 2023. Strengthening Policy Development in the Public Sector in Ireland. OECD Public Governance Reviews. https://doi.org/10.1787/6724d155-en
O’Mahony, T. 2018. Appraisal in Transition: 21st Century Challenges and Updating CBA in Ireland. Tadhg O’Mahony Consulting/National Economic and Social Development Office. http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.32515.76322
O’Mahony, T. 2021. “Cost-benefit Analysis in a Climate of Change: Setting Social Discount Rates in the Case of Ireland.” Green Finance 3 (2): 175-197.
O’Mahony, T. 2021. “Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Environment: The Time Horizon Is of the Essence.” Environmental Impact Assessment Review 89: 106587.