Sensemaking
#26Key Findings
Italy performs relatively poorly (rank 26) in the category of sensemaking.
The country lacks dedicated units for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation at the central level. The central government does not engage in strategic planning using multiple scenarios, leaving it unprepared for future challenges.
Regulatory impact assessments (RIAs) are required for all ministry proposals, with the Prime Minister’s Office overseeing the process. Although compliance has improved, the quality of RIAs varies. Independent authorities tend to produce sound RIAs, but those by ministries are often formalistic. Sustainability criteria are not a strong focus.
While ex post evaluations are required by law, such assessments are carried out in a nonsystematic and usually partisan manner. However, the Court of Auditors does produce high-quality evaluations of existing policies.
The country lacks dedicated units for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation at the central level. The central government does not engage in strategic planning using multiple scenarios, leaving it unprepared for future challenges.
Regulatory impact assessments (RIAs) are required for all ministry proposals, with the Prime Minister’s Office overseeing the process. Although compliance has improved, the quality of RIAs varies. Independent authorities tend to produce sound RIAs, but those by ministries are often formalistic. Sustainability criteria are not a strong focus.
While ex post evaluations are required by law, such assessments are carried out in a nonsystematic and usually partisan manner. However, the Court of Auditors does produce high-quality evaluations of existing policies.
Graph View
Graph View
To what extent can the central government foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization?
10
9
9
The central government can foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
8
7
6
7
6
Most of the time, the central government can foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
5
4
3
4
3
The central government is rarely capable of fostering the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
2
1
1
The central government is not capable of fostering the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
At the central level, Italy lacks dedicated units for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation, although specific units like Open Government and Digital Transformation do exist. As a result, no behavioral experimentation is developed by the central government, and no experimental strategies are in place. Additionally, there is no policy for seeking new ideas, apart from funds allocated to basic and applied research in universities and public research centers.
In the recruitment process for senior civil servants, strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation are not yet included as essential skills for candidates. Although some training is available for those already working in central administration, it is not mandatory and is provided by the National School of Administration.
While there is minimal use of the behavioral social science perspective, there are official plans to enhance open government and digital transformation. The NRRP is investing around €6 billion in the country’s digital transformation. However, it remains unclear how far the funded projects have progressed.
Overall, central government plans do not account for multiple scenarios and potential related strategies, resulting in a lack of real preparation for future strategic challenges. For example, there is no activity addressing the socioeconomic effects of the dramatic decrease in population projected for the next 30 years. It is important to note that none of the significant funds to be invested over the six years of the NRRP have been allocated to developing strategic preparedness activities.
In the recruitment process for senior civil servants, strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation are not yet included as essential skills for candidates. Although some training is available for those already working in central administration, it is not mandatory and is provided by the National School of Administration.
While there is minimal use of the behavioral social science perspective, there are official plans to enhance open government and digital transformation. The NRRP is investing around €6 billion in the country’s digital transformation. However, it remains unclear how far the funded projects have progressed.
Overall, central government plans do not account for multiple scenarios and potential related strategies, resulting in a lack of real preparation for future strategic challenges. For example, there is no activity addressing the socioeconomic effects of the dramatic decrease in population projected for the next 30 years. It is important to note that none of the significant funds to be invested over the six years of the NRRP have been allocated to developing strategic preparedness activities.
Graph View
To what extent does the government conduct high-quality impact assessments to evaluate the potential effects of prepared legislation before implementation?
10
9
9
The government draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
8
7
6
7
6
In most cases, the government draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
5
4
3
4
3
The government rarely draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
2
1
1
The government does not draw on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
In principle, RIAs are required for all ministries and local authorities under Laws 50/1999 and 246/2005. At the national level, ministries are responsible for conducting RIAs, while the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) oversees the review and quality control of the entire RIA process and coordinates related activities. The Department of Legal and Legislative Affairs of the Presidency of the Council of Ministers (DAGL) develops the RIA methodology and presents annual reports to parliament.
Following reforms by previous governments, including a new RIA regulation effective December 15, 2017, the current RIA framework prohibits the Council of Ministers from discussing any proposal without an accompanying RIA. Although these rules were not always applied in the past, compliance has gradually improved, and most normative acts now include a RIA unless an exemption is granted due to the limited relevance of a proposal.
However, the quality of RIAs is still inconsistent. Observers have noted that while RIAs conducted by independent authorities are generally sound, those carried out by ministerial departments tend to be rather formalistic (Osservatorio Air 2022). The government’s 2022 report to parliament highlights two main issues:
Lack of sufficient technical and analytical skills: This limits the ability to conduct comprehensive analyses, including significant quantitative impact estimates.
Lack of coordination: Implementing RIAs for policies involving different administrations is often uncoordinated.
Overall, there are three persistent problems with RIAs:
Justification of political choices: RIAs are often used to justify political decisions rather than inform them.
Limited quantitative analysis: Comprehensive quantitative technical analysis is largely absent.
Failure to assess real impact: There is often no assessment of the actual impact of regulations after they are implemented.
In practice, RIAs are still viewed as a formal compliance effort within Italy’s central administrations. Policy changes are rarely based on the assessment of regulatory impact, and RIAs are not easily accessible; they are attached to the bill materials presented in parliament, making them difficult to find for those not familiar with the parliament’s website.
Citations:
Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri. 2023. “RELAZIONE AL PARLAMENTO SULLO STATO DI.”
APPLICAZIONE DELL’ANALISI DELL’IMPATTO DELLA REGOLAMENTAZIONE. https://presidenza.governo.it/DAGL/uff_studi/Relazione_2022_AIR.pdf
Di Porto, V., and Espa, E. 2022. L’analisi di impatto e gli altri strumenti per la qualità della regolazione Annuario 2021. Napoli: ESI. https://osservatorioair.it/sites/default/files/files/annuario_osservatorioair_2021_ed2022.pdf
Following reforms by previous governments, including a new RIA regulation effective December 15, 2017, the current RIA framework prohibits the Council of Ministers from discussing any proposal without an accompanying RIA. Although these rules were not always applied in the past, compliance has gradually improved, and most normative acts now include a RIA unless an exemption is granted due to the limited relevance of a proposal.
However, the quality of RIAs is still inconsistent. Observers have noted that while RIAs conducted by independent authorities are generally sound, those carried out by ministerial departments tend to be rather formalistic (Osservatorio Air 2022). The government’s 2022 report to parliament highlights two main issues:
Lack of sufficient technical and analytical skills: This limits the ability to conduct comprehensive analyses, including significant quantitative impact estimates.
Lack of coordination: Implementing RIAs for policies involving different administrations is often uncoordinated.
Overall, there are three persistent problems with RIAs:
Justification of political choices: RIAs are often used to justify political decisions rather than inform them.
Limited quantitative analysis: Comprehensive quantitative technical analysis is largely absent.
Failure to assess real impact: There is often no assessment of the actual impact of regulations after they are implemented.
In practice, RIAs are still viewed as a formal compliance effort within Italy’s central administrations. Policy changes are rarely based on the assessment of regulatory impact, and RIAs are not easily accessible; they are attached to the bill materials presented in parliament, making them difficult to find for those not familiar with the parliament’s website.
Citations:
Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri. 2023. “RELAZIONE AL PARLAMENTO SULLO STATO DI.”
APPLICAZIONE DELL’ANALISI DELL’IMPATTO DELLA REGOLAMENTAZIONE. https://presidenza.governo.it/DAGL/uff_studi/Relazione_2022_AIR.pdf
Di Porto, V., and Espa, E. 2022. L’analisi di impatto e gli altri strumenti per la qualità della regolazione Annuario 2021. Napoli: ESI. https://osservatorioair.it/sites/default/files/files/annuario_osservatorioair_2021_ed2022.pdf
To what extent does the government effectively incorporate sustainability assessments within the framework of RIAs?
10
9
9
High-quality sustainability assessments are incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
8
7
6
7
6
High-quality sustainability assessments are, for the most part, incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
5
4
3
4
3
High-quality sustainability assessments are rarely incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
2
1
1
Sustainability assessments are not incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
Italy formally adopted a Sustainable Development Strategy based on the SDGs, approving a detailed implementation plan in 2017, revised in 2022. The strategy encompasses five major programs aimed at achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, built around five fundamental pillars of the 2030 Agenda: People, Planet, Prosperity, Peace, and Partnership. These pillars unfold into fifteen strategic choices covering various areas, from responsible management of natural resources to addressing social inequalities. The renewed NSSD introduces annual monitoring targets against 55 headline indicators.
The strategy also highlights “sustainability vectors” and proposes Policy Coherence for Sustainable Development (PCSD), with an annexed National Action Program for PCSD, and multilevel governance as cross-cutting implementation mechanisms. Additionally, it emphasizes the role of culture in sustainability, focusing on education, training, and communication.
Active participation, reinforced by the Rules of Procedure of the Forum for Sustainable Development, is essential for a well-structured and inclusive development path. Despite gradual improvements, sustainability reviews remain underdeveloped. Reports from the Prime Minister’s Office to parliament indicate that sustainability reviews are not yet systematically integrated into the RIA and often prioritize economic indicators over social and environmental ones.
A 2017 decision mandated stricter control over adopting sustainability criteria in regulation by the Prime Minister’s Office and the Ministry of the Environment. However, the attention to this aspect in RIA reports has not improved significantly. The monitoring of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is not based on the RIA procedure, and the government is slow in responding to emerging problems, though regional applications, such as in Emilia Romagna and Trentino-Alto Adige, are more coherent.
Currently, the RIA procedure and the assessment of SDG achievement levels are two separate streams of activity at the national government level.
Citations:
- Italian Strategy for Sustainable Development: https://www.mase.gov.it/sites/default/files/archivio/allegati/sviluppo_sostenibile/ALL1_SNSvS_2023_Strategia_e_allegati.pdf
- Last monitoring report (2021-22): https://www.mase.gov.it/sites/default/files/archivio/allegati/sviluppo_sostenibile/SNSvS_eventi/relazione_annuale_stato_attuazione_Strategia_Nazionale_Sviluppo_Sostenibile-2021-22.pdf
-Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri. 2023. RELAZIONE AL PARLAMENTO SULLO STATO DI
APPLICAZIONE DELL’ANALISI DELL’IMPATTO DELLA REGOLAMENTAZIONE. https://presidenza.governo.it/DAGL/uff_studi/Relazione_2022_AIR.pdf
The strategy also highlights “sustainability vectors” and proposes Policy Coherence for Sustainable Development (PCSD), with an annexed National Action Program for PCSD, and multilevel governance as cross-cutting implementation mechanisms. Additionally, it emphasizes the role of culture in sustainability, focusing on education, training, and communication.
Active participation, reinforced by the Rules of Procedure of the Forum for Sustainable Development, is essential for a well-structured and inclusive development path. Despite gradual improvements, sustainability reviews remain underdeveloped. Reports from the Prime Minister’s Office to parliament indicate that sustainability reviews are not yet systematically integrated into the RIA and often prioritize economic indicators over social and environmental ones.
A 2017 decision mandated stricter control over adopting sustainability criteria in regulation by the Prime Minister’s Office and the Ministry of the Environment. However, the attention to this aspect in RIA reports has not improved significantly. The monitoring of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is not based on the RIA procedure, and the government is slow in responding to emerging problems, though regional applications, such as in Emilia Romagna and Trentino-Alto Adige, are more coherent.
Currently, the RIA procedure and the assessment of SDG achievement levels are two separate streams of activity at the national government level.
Citations:
- Italian Strategy for Sustainable Development: https://www.mase.gov.it/sites/default/files/archivio/allegati/sviluppo_sostenibile/ALL1_SNSvS_2023_Strategia_e_allegati.pdf
- Last monitoring report (2021-22): https://www.mase.gov.it/sites/default/files/archivio/allegati/sviluppo_sostenibile/SNSvS_eventi/relazione_annuale_stato_attuazione_Strategia_Nazionale_Sviluppo_Sostenibile-2021-22.pdf
-Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri. 2023. RELAZIONE AL PARLAMENTO SULLO STATO DI
APPLICAZIONE DELL’ANALISI DELL’IMPATTO DELLA REGOLAMENTAZIONE. https://presidenza.governo.it/DAGL/uff_studi/Relazione_2022_AIR.pdf
To what extent do government ministries utilize ex post evaluations to improve existing policies?
10
9
9
High-quality ex post evaluations serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
8
7
6
7
6
High-quality ex post evaluations frequently serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
5
4
3
4
3
High-quality ex post evaluations rarely serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
2
1
1
High-quality ex post evaluations are not utilized to make adjustments to public policies.
The legislation mandating Regulatory Impact Assessments (RIAs) also requires ex post evaluations. However, as highlighted in the most recent annual government report to parliament, this legal provision is not regularly implemented by public administration. Each new draft law is accompanied by a technical report discussing existing policies and explaining the benefits of the new policy. However, this process rarely results from thorough evaluations or public debates. Often, the assessment of existing policies altered by new bills is based on partisan evaluations aimed at justifying the proposed policy.
Despite these shortcomings, some public bodies produce high-quality ex post evaluations. For example, the Court of Auditors often presents ex post evaluations of existing policies in its reports. The Senate recently established an impact assessment unit. The National Institute for Public Policy Analysis produces strong evaluation reports on social policy, education, and labor policy. However, these evaluations are not intrinsically linked to the government’s policymaking process, and policymakers often disregard the empirical evidence provided.
Overall, ex post evaluation has not yet become a regular tool. It is carried out in a non-systematic and usually partisan manner. The adoption of a policy cycle perspective is missing in government policymaking, resulting in evaluations that are viewed as one-off activities rather than essential components of the decision-making process.
Citations:
-Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri. 2023. “RELAZIONE AL PARLAMENTO SULLO STATO DI.”
APPLICAZIONE DELL’ANALISI DELL’IMPATTO DELLA REGOLAMENTAZIONE. https://presidenza.governo.it/DAGL/uff_studi/Relazione_2022_AIR.pdf
Di Porto, V., and Espa, E. 2022. L’analisi di impatto e gli altri strumenti per la qualità della regolazione Annuario 2021. Napoli: ESI. https://osservatorioair.it/sites/default/files/files/annuario_osservatorioair_2021_ed2022.pdf
- For the evaluation reports of the Court of Auditors: https://www.corteconti.it
- For the evaluation reports of the Impact Assessment Units of the Italian Senate, see -https://www.senato.it/ufficiovalutazioneimpatto
- For the evaluation reports of the Italian Institute for Public Policy Analysis, see - https://www.inapp.gov.it
Despite these shortcomings, some public bodies produce high-quality ex post evaluations. For example, the Court of Auditors often presents ex post evaluations of existing policies in its reports. The Senate recently established an impact assessment unit. The National Institute for Public Policy Analysis produces strong evaluation reports on social policy, education, and labor policy. However, these evaluations are not intrinsically linked to the government’s policymaking process, and policymakers often disregard the empirical evidence provided.
Overall, ex post evaluation has not yet become a regular tool. It is carried out in a non-systematic and usually partisan manner. The adoption of a policy cycle perspective is missing in government policymaking, resulting in evaluations that are viewed as one-off activities rather than essential components of the decision-making process.
Citations:
-Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri. 2023. “RELAZIONE AL PARLAMENTO SULLO STATO DI.”
APPLICAZIONE DELL’ANALISI DELL’IMPATTO DELLA REGOLAMENTAZIONE. https://presidenza.governo.it/DAGL/uff_studi/Relazione_2022_AIR.pdf
Di Porto, V., and Espa, E. 2022. L’analisi di impatto e gli altri strumenti per la qualità della regolazione Annuario 2021. Napoli: ESI. https://osservatorioair.it/sites/default/files/files/annuario_osservatorioair_2021_ed2022.pdf
- For the evaluation reports of the Court of Auditors: https://www.corteconti.it
- For the evaluation reports of the Impact Assessment Units of the Italian Senate, see -https://www.senato.it/ufficiovalutazioneimpatto
- For the evaluation reports of the Italian Institute for Public Policy Analysis, see - https://www.inapp.gov.it