SGI 2024 | Japan | Executive Summary

Executive Summary

Recent Governments Experts

SGI experts on Japan

Karol Żakowski

Karol Zakowski, PhD (2010) and habilitation (2016) in political science, is Associate Professor at the Department of Asian Studies, Faculty of International and Political Studies, University of Lodz. He specializes in decision-making processes and foreign policy of Japan. His recent monographs include: Decision-Making Reform in Japan: The DPJ’s Failed Attempt at a Politician-Led Government (Routledge, 2015), Japan’s Foreign Policy Making: Central Government Reforms, Decision-Making Processes, and Diplomacy (co-authored with Beata Bochorodycz and Marcin Socha, Springer, 2018), and Gradual Institutional Change in Japan. Kantei Leadership under the Abe Administration (Routledge, 2021).

Steffen Heinrich

Steffen Heinrich is visiting professor in politics and political economy of Japan at Freie Universität Berlin. He holds a doctorate in comparative political sciences from Heidelberg University and a MA from Munich University (LMU) in political science, Japanese studies and economics He has worked at the German Institute for Japanese Studies (DIJ) in Tokyo, and has held academic positions at the University of Duisburg-Essen (East Asian studies) and Heidelberg University (political science). His research interests include comparative welfare state studies, work and employment in Japan and Japanese politics. At present, he is working on a research project studying the impact of economic stagnation and demographic ageing on social policy in Japan in comparative perspective.

Patrick Köllner (Coordinator)

Patrick Köllner has been director of the Institute of Asian Studies, German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA) since 2011. He is also a professor of political science at the University of Hamburg. His research focuses on political regimes and organizations in East Asia and in comparative perspective. Between 2007 and 2013 he co-edited the yearbook Korea: Politics, Economy and Society. Köllner holds a doctorate in political science from the Humboldt University of Berlin and a venia legendi in political science from the University of Trier.

Democratic government

Despite problems such as the malapportionment of constituencies, hereditary parliamentarism and clientelist practices, Japan remains one of the most advanced and stable democracies in both East Asia and the industrialized world. There are no substantial problems with respect to fundamental civil rights, such as freedom of press, assembly and association, and the current government is noticeably less willing to challenge democratic standards than some previous governments.

Nevertheless, the Supreme Court tends to be lenient toward the government and the administrative organs’ discretionary powers remain strong in terms of the disclosure of documents or detention of suspects. Japan’s civil society exerts influence on political decisions only in the field of economic and labor policy, with organizations such as the Japanese Business Federation (Keidanren) enjoying privileged access to and close connections with the government. Social welfare and environmental NGOs are not as visible in policymaking and deliberations as in other countries.

Despite some progress in fighting corruption, collusive ties exist between politicians, businesspersons and bureaucrats. The transparency of decision-making is weakened further by the fact that, due to the dominant position of the Liberal Democratic Party, legislative projects are negotiated primarily within the party, while the Diet rarely performs its deliberative, oversight and investigative functions.

Governing with foresight

As a result of institutional reforms implemented since 2001, the Cabinet Secretariat and the Cabinet Office are well-equipped to conduct top-down policy coordination. Japan boasts a highly professional civil service, but the ministerial bureaucracy is characterized by strong sectionalism, and is insufficiently trained in strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation. Due to the limited effectiveness of formal interministerial coordination, informal channels continue to center around the ruling party. As a large share of provisions are earmarked for state grants, local authorities remain largely dependent on the central government. Even though the Kishida government has intensified contacts with the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengô), no permanent tripartite council has been established. Representatives of social welfare and environmental civil society groups are rarely represented in or consulted by cabinet advisory bodies. While regulatory impact analysis is reasonably effective, stakeholders are rarely involved in evaluation processes.

Sustainable policymaking

Japan is the fourth-largest economy globally, with a focus on R&D, high-quality education and healthcare. It is also one of the most generous donors of ODA to the developing world. Nevertheless, after three decades of economic stagnation, Japan has yet to find an effective strategy to bolster economic growth and sustain high living standards. The risk of poverty is prone to increase in line with population aging in Japan, not least because the proportion of persons that diverge from a standard employment career – still at the heart of the social protection system – is growing, and many persons are ill-equipped to increase personal savings and assets to compensate for inadequate pensions. Fiscal policy in Japan is also risk prone as any serious attempt at consolidation has been pushed back and the Bank of Japan, as the main buyer of Japan government bonds, is set to gradually “normalize” monetary policy. This may make it more difficult for the government to issue new bonds and may also put pressure on social cohesion, especially if controversial decisions are made without public debate and with limited policy participation.

While Japan has made substantial efforts to promote a circular economy and build resilient economic infrastructure, it has been less committed to decarbonizing its energy system and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. The existing tax on fossil fuel consumption is very low and the carbon levy, scheduled to be introduced in 2028, is also expected to be set relatively low. The Kishida government has addressed some problems in the labor market for women and low-income families, but non-regular workers remain disadvantaged, particularly regarding social security and skills. The tax system seriously disincentivizes women from seeking better-paid employment. The current government seems aware of the challenges of demographic aging, but its focus on fertility seems questionable, as most governments so far have failed to influence fertility rates simply through targeted interventions without addressing gender roles and gender gaps more fundamentally.