SGI 2024 | Lithuania | Key Challenges

Key Challenges

Recent Governments Experts

SGI experts on Lithuania

Ramūnas Vilpišauskas

Ramūnas Vilpišauskas is a director and professor of the Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University. He has been a visiting fellow at several universities in the United States (Syracuse University) and Canada (Carleton University), has been a Fulbright scholar at the Columbia University, conducted research at a number of European institutions including European University Institute (Florence). He has worked as a Chief Economic Policy Advisor to the President of Lithuania V. Adamkus and the Head of Economic and Social Policy Group (2004–2009), has also been appointed to coordinate the team of advisors to the President (2006–2009). He has an extensive list of publications on EU enlargement, transition reforms, policy analysis and European integration policies. One of his recent publications, “Eurozone Crisis and European Integration: Functional Spillover, Political Spillback?” appeared in the Journal of European Integration in April 2013.

Marius Kalanta

Dr. Marius Kalanta is a Research Fellow at Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University and a Senior Researcher at policy analysis and research centre Visionary Analytics. He has over 8 years of experience in basic and applied research and policy analysis in the fields of Industrial, R&I, entrepreneurship, trade, competitiveness, and labour policy. He has a strong theoretical background rooted in political-economic perspectives such as growth models, business-state relations, industrial, technological and economic upgrading as well as methodological background in case study research.

Daunis Auers (Coordinator)

Dr Daunis Auers is Associate Professor of Comparative Politics at the University of Latvia. He defended his PhD at University College London (UCL) and his MSc. at the London School of Economics (LSE). He has been a Fulbright Scholar at the University of California-Berkeley (2005-2006) and a Baltic-American Freedom Foundation Scholar at Wayne State University in Detroit (2014). He has widely published on Baltic and European politics. His most recent book – The Comparative Government and Politics of the Baltic States: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in the 21st Century – was published by Palgrave Macmillan in 2015.

Living under conditions of polycrisis has become the new normal, one that is likely to permanently affect future governance. For Lithuania and its NATO and EU partners, the most immediate challenge is the need to upgrade defense capacities and assist Ukraine in defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The violation of established international norms and the rules-based order by aggressive authoritarian states such as Russia and Belarus poses the most serious threat to the sustainable development of European democracies and even their future existence. This threat has been acknowledged not only by Lithuanian policymakers but also by partners in Germany, such as German Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius, and EU institutions. These figures assert that if Russia is not contained in Ukraine, it could attack NATO members within five to eight years.

One of Lithuania’s key priorities should be the swift implementation of the agreement with the German government to permanently station a German brigade in Lithuania by 2027. This will require effective coordination within Lithuanian institutions, with Germany and with other NATO partners. It also necessitates a political agreement among the main political parties in Lithuania to sustainably increase defense funding beyond the 2.75% of GDP achieved in 2023.

The political debate in Lithuania has already intensified, although it may become entangled in the campaigns for three elections – presidential, European Parliament and parliamentary – scheduled for 2024. Additionally, the growing possibility of Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election at the end of 2024 is likely to keep Lithuanian and other NATO policymakers focused.

At the same time, the government and the main political actors need to step up their dialogue efforts with society and various stakeholders regarding the possible ways of bridging the gap between the needs of the public sector, especially considering demographic changes, and their funding sources. The ongoing green and digital transitions will also need to be managed carefully, creating both opportunities and a need for adjustments in the labor market and the society’s way of life. The current government coalition’s experiences – both negative and positive – in attempting to initiate structural reforms illustrates that such efforts often fail due to insufficient communication and a lack of leadership skills. Particular attention should be given to the proper implementation of civil service reforms, which could have multiple positive effects within various dimensions of sustainable governance. The use of Recovery and Resilience Facility funding from the EU might strengthen the continuity of reforms initiated by this government after the parliamentary elections of 2024.

To sum up, policymakers, society and businesses have demonstrated their resilience and ability to manage multiple crises in recent years. On most formal measures of democratic governance and sustainable policymaking, Lithuania has made progress. The biggest challenges currently are the need to narrow the gap between declared ambitions and actual performance in implementing agreed decisions. This requires more systematic involvement of stakeholders and communication through various forums, as well as attention to the potential impacts of policy decisions. Additionally, more systematic coordination between institutions and with partners in the EU and NATO is necessary.