SGI 2024 | Poland | Key Challenges

Key Challenges

Recent Governments Experts

SGI experts on Poland

Katarzyna Dośpiał-Borysiak

Katarzyna Dośpiał-Borysiak, doctor habil., works at the Department of Political Systems in the Faculty of International and Political Studies at the University of Lodz (Poland). Her main areas of interest include sustainable development, climate policy, regionalism, and European integration. She is the author of monographs such as “State Climate Policy: The Norwegian Path to Sustainable Development” (Łódź, 2018) and “Air Protection in the European Union Member States: From Laggards to Pushers” (co-authored, Routledge, forthcoming, 2024), as well as numerous scientific articles published in monographs and national and international scientific journals. She co-edited the book “Civic and Uncivic Values in Poland” (CEU Press, 2018). Through European Economic Area Grants, she has conducted scientific research (at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology in Trondheim) and international educational projects (Entrepreneurial Youth for Green Europe). She was also a scholarship recipient from the Government of the Kingdom of Sweden. Member of the Scientific Council of the Polish Society for European Studies.

Radoslaw Markowski

Radoslaw Markowksi has been the acting Head of the Comparative Politics Department at the Institute of Political Studies (Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw) since 1991 and the Director of the Center for the Study of Democracy (Warsaw School of Social Sciences and Humanities) since 2009. From 2001 to 2009, he was the Director of the Department of Political Science (Warsaw School of Social Sciences and Humanities) and from 1999 to 2000 he was the Protector and Vice-Chair of the Department of Political Science. He served as the Deputy Director of the Public Opinion Research Center (CBOS) from 1994 to 1996. Mr. Markowski was Assistant Professor at the Institute of Philosophy and Sociology (Polish Academy of Sciences) from 1981 to 1988.

Petra Guasti (Coordinator)

Petra Guasti is an Associate Professor of Democratic Theory at the Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague and a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Sociology, Czech Academy of Sciences (on leave). Between 2016 and 2021 served as a senior researcher, an Interim Professor and adjunct lecturer at the Goethe University Frankfurt. In April 2021 she completed her (cumulative) habilitation Democracy Disrupted at the Goethe University Frankfurt. Petra received her doctoral degree in political science from the University of Bremen. She also previously earned a doctoral degree in political sociology from the Charles University in Prague. In March 2019, she completed an eight-month Visiting Democracy Fellowship at Harvard University’s Ash Centre for Democratic Governance and Innovation at the John F. Kennedy School of Government. She serves as an expert for Bertelsmann Transformation Index, Sustainable Governance Indicators for over a decade, and V-Dem since 2018. In 2020 she has been appointed to the expert board of the Nation in Transit (Freedom House).

The new government led by Donald Tusk faces significant challenges arising from the profound systemic changes implemented in Poland in the post-2015 period. Key priorities include restoring the rule of law, returning to a functioning democratic institutional system, enhancing governance quality both horizontally and vertically, ensuring transparency, and accelerating reforms. However, many key institutions will remain unchanged due to ongoing terms of office. A strained cohabitation with President Andrzej Duda until mid-2025 may complicate reform efforts.

The unity of the ruling coalition will be crucial. The government, composed of parties united by fundamental democratic principles, may have divergent views on specific issues such as abortion. Intense competition within the ruling camp could surface as the next presidential elections approach, with each party possibly fielding its candidate. In early 2024, Szymon Hołownia from Polska 2050 had already announced his candidacy, planning to step down as speaker of the Sejm after two years in favor of a left-wing representative. Leadership within PiS remains uncertain, with Jarosław Kaczyński potentially retaining control, or else being succeeded by younger leaders such as Zbigniew Ziobro, Mateusz Morawiecki or Andrzej Duda.

Economically, one primary challenge lies in the need to maintain budgetary discipline and control the state deficit, which is expected to exceed the EU-mandated 3% of GDP. Nonetheless, the government has decided to retain all social benefits, including the 800+ program, additional pensions and public sector salary increases of up to 20%, or even more in the education sector (30%). These expenditures, combined with the rise in the minimum wage, may strain employers and expand the job market, but could also increase inflationary pressure, with the inflation target likely to be achieved only by 2026. While macroeconomic forecasts, including economic growth rates, appear favorable for Poland, the government must be more proactive in fostering investments.

In the social sector, public services must be improved. Teachers, parents and students have highlighted the urgent need for reforms in the education system. Family policies should shift focus from social transfers to the creation of high-quality services and incentives for parents. The healthcare system also demands significant attention. Successful reforms in these areas will depend on effective cooperation with local authorities via consultation and inclusion, especially with the upcoming local elections in April 2024.

Domestic policy will largely hinge on international dynamics, particularly with respect to rebuilding ties with the EU. This includes active engagement in the flow of EU funds and constructive participation in decision-making processes. Poland is set to receive €59.8 billion, with substantial allocations for climate goals (46.60%) and digital transformation (21.36%) (European Commission 2024). EU funding should primarily be used to support green transformation, addressing the urgent need to shift to renewable energy and a circular economy. Digital transformation and addressing AI-related challenges will also require government focus.

The new government will also have to address the complex issue of migration, anticipating increased illegal crossings at the Polish-Belarusian border. Controversial topics such as “pushbacks” and the EU’s mandatory solidarity mechanisms will likely be points of contention. The European Parliament elections in June 2024 may further reflect Polish public opinion, known for its strong commitment to European integration over the past two decades.

The ongoing war in Ukraine poses the most significant challenge to national security. Poland’s resilience will be tested as a front-line country, with a continued role in logistical deliveries of equipment and humanitarian aid. However, reestablishing political closeness with the Ukrainian government – which the previous administration disrupted – will be essential.

Lastly, deep societal polarization presents a critical challenge. Political divisions have revealed substantial differences in values and priorities among Poles. The formation of the new government has raised high expectations among its supporters, but fostering broader social trust will be crucial for the nation’s cohesion.

Citations:

European Commission. 2024. “Poland’s Recovery and Resilience Plan.” https://commission.europa.eu/business-economy-euro/economic-recovery/recovery-and-resilience-facility/country-pages/polands-recovery-and-resilience-plan_en