Sensemaking
#26Key Findings
Portugal performs relatively poorly (rank 26) in the area of sensemaking.
Strategic foresight capacities are underdeveloped in Portugal’s public administration, with no central government unit tasked with analysis of this kind. A public sector innovation lab is focused on fostering an innovation ecosystem within the public administration, but progress has been slow.
Regulatory impact assessments (RIAs) are not well developed. Stakeholder involvement takes place at a rate lower than the OECD average. An initiative to improve the RIA framework has lost momentum.
Sustainability assessments are not systematically incorporated into environmental impact studies. Ex post assessments are not systematically institutionalized, but a new body has taken on oversight of both ex ante and ex post policy evaluations.
Strategic foresight capacities are underdeveloped in Portugal’s public administration, with no central government unit tasked with analysis of this kind. A public sector innovation lab is focused on fostering an innovation ecosystem within the public administration, but progress has been slow.
Regulatory impact assessments (RIAs) are not well developed. Stakeholder involvement takes place at a rate lower than the OECD average. An initiative to improve the RIA framework has lost momentum.
Sustainability assessments are not systematically incorporated into environmental impact studies. Ex post assessments are not systematically institutionalized, but a new body has taken on oversight of both ex ante and ex post policy evaluations.
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Graph View
To what extent can the central government foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization?
10
9
9
The central government can foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
8
7
6
7
6
Most of the time, the central government can foster the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
5
4
3
4
3
The central government is rarely capable of fostering the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
2
1
1
The central government is not capable of fostering the capacity for strategic foresight and anticipatory innovation within its organization.
Exercising strategic foresight remains an underdeveloped practice within most of Portugal’s public administration. There is no central government unit with the robust capability to conduct strategic foresight. Evidence from the past few years – specifically from 2022 to 2024 – indicates a lack of comprehensive foresight analysis in Portugal. The most thorough recent analysis was a study conducted by Ribeiro in 2021 under the aegis of the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation, a private entity.
Within the central government, PlanAPP is currently building capacity in strategic foresight, but its capabilities are not yet fully developed. Currently, its activities are limited to organizing workshops on the subject (PlanAPP 2022).
Regarding policy implementation, particularly in innovation labs, LabX – the Centre for Innovation in the Public Sector, within the Administrative Modernization Agency (AMA, I.P.), plays a significant role. LabX’s mission is to foster an innovation ecosystem within public administration, aiming to rejuvenate public services to better align with the actual needs of citizens and businesses.
A noteworthy initiative by AMA/LabX, conducted in collaboration with the OECD’s Observatory of Public Sector Innovation, is the Anticipatory Innovation Starter Kit (AISK). Launched in early 2022, the AISK comprises guides, tools, and detailed instructions designed to equip users within the Portuguese public administration to adopt anticipatory and foresight practices. By implementing the AISK, the central government aims to cultivate a culture oriented toward strategic planning and future preparedness, thereby integrating anticipatory innovation within public organizations.
LabX also aimed to establish a network of experimentation labs in public sector institutions. However, a recent review in January 2024 reveals that, after an initial project with Coimbra Municipality in 2019, there has been no significant progression.
In summary, despite some methodological analyses and capacity-building efforts during 2017 – 2020, the central government has seldom been able to effectively champion strategic foresight and innovation from 2022 to 2024.
Citations:
Ribeiro, F., ed. 2021. Foresight Portugal 2030, cenários de evolução para Portugal. Vol. 2. Lisbon: Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian. https://cdn.gulbenkian.pt/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/FCG_FutureForum_VOLUME_02.pdf
PlanAPP. 2022. “How Strategic Foresight can Shape Public Policies.” https://www.planapp.gov.pt/en/how-strategic-foresight-can-shape-public-policies/
Administrative Modernization Agency. 2021. “Anticipatory Innovation Starter Kit.” https://labx.gov.pt/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/ama_LabX_AISK0.2EN_Fev2022.pdf
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). n.d. “Anticipatory Innovation Starter Kit Portugal.” https://oecd-opsi.org/air/case/anticipatory-innovation-starter-kit
Within the central government, PlanAPP is currently building capacity in strategic foresight, but its capabilities are not yet fully developed. Currently, its activities are limited to organizing workshops on the subject (PlanAPP 2022).
Regarding policy implementation, particularly in innovation labs, LabX – the Centre for Innovation in the Public Sector, within the Administrative Modernization Agency (AMA, I.P.), plays a significant role. LabX’s mission is to foster an innovation ecosystem within public administration, aiming to rejuvenate public services to better align with the actual needs of citizens and businesses.
A noteworthy initiative by AMA/LabX, conducted in collaboration with the OECD’s Observatory of Public Sector Innovation, is the Anticipatory Innovation Starter Kit (AISK). Launched in early 2022, the AISK comprises guides, tools, and detailed instructions designed to equip users within the Portuguese public administration to adopt anticipatory and foresight practices. By implementing the AISK, the central government aims to cultivate a culture oriented toward strategic planning and future preparedness, thereby integrating anticipatory innovation within public organizations.
LabX also aimed to establish a network of experimentation labs in public sector institutions. However, a recent review in January 2024 reveals that, after an initial project with Coimbra Municipality in 2019, there has been no significant progression.
In summary, despite some methodological analyses and capacity-building efforts during 2017 – 2020, the central government has seldom been able to effectively champion strategic foresight and innovation from 2022 to 2024.
Citations:
Ribeiro, F., ed. 2021. Foresight Portugal 2030, cenários de evolução para Portugal. Vol. 2. Lisbon: Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian. https://cdn.gulbenkian.pt/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/FCG_FutureForum_VOLUME_02.pdf
PlanAPP. 2022. “How Strategic Foresight can Shape Public Policies.” https://www.planapp.gov.pt/en/how-strategic-foresight-can-shape-public-policies/
Administrative Modernization Agency. 2021. “Anticipatory Innovation Starter Kit.” https://labx.gov.pt/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/ama_LabX_AISK0.2EN_Fev2022.pdf
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). n.d. “Anticipatory Innovation Starter Kit Portugal.” https://oecd-opsi.org/air/case/anticipatory-innovation-starter-kit
Graph View
To what extent does the government conduct high-quality impact assessments to evaluate the potential effects of prepared legislation before implementation?
10
9
9
The government draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
8
7
6
7
6
In most cases, the government draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
5
4
3
4
3
The government rarely draws on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
2
1
1
The government does not draw on high-quality RIAs to assess the potential impact of prepared legislation before implementation.
According to the OECD’s Regulatory Policy and Governance 2022 indicators, stakeholder involvement in regulation in Portugal is lower than the OECD average in 2021. For example, there is no obligation to include business organizations and trade unions in the negotiation phase of the legislative process, and the government does not facilitate their involvement in the European Commission’s consultation process.
The Portuguese government approved a resolution (Resolution No. 44/2017 of the Council of Ministers on March 24, 2017) concerning a “Model for Legislative Impact Assessment.” In 2018, they invited an OECD team to produce a report titled “Reviewing and Supporting Regulatory Impact in Portugal.” A government institution was created to implement ex ante impact assessments of legislation: the Legislative Impact Assessment Technical Unit (UTAIL) within JurisAPP – Centro de Competências Jurídicas do Estado. However, the last report it produced, which referred to the 2018 year, was in 2019. This indicates that the initial impetus for impact assessment of legislation (2017 – 2018) seems to have vanished.
Citations:
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). “Indicators of Regulatory Policy and Governance EUROPE 2022 Portugal.” https://web-archive.oecd.org/2022-08-03/638949-Portugal-country-profile-EU-report-2022.pdf
JurisAPP Unidade Técnica de Avaliação de Impacto Legislativo. 2019. Relatório de Atividade – Ano de 2018.
https://jurisapp.gov.pt/media/1113/utail-relatorio-2018_final_15042019_publica.pdf
The Portuguese government approved a resolution (Resolution No. 44/2017 of the Council of Ministers on March 24, 2017) concerning a “Model for Legislative Impact Assessment.” In 2018, they invited an OECD team to produce a report titled “Reviewing and Supporting Regulatory Impact in Portugal.” A government institution was created to implement ex ante impact assessments of legislation: the Legislative Impact Assessment Technical Unit (UTAIL) within JurisAPP – Centro de Competências Jurídicas do Estado. However, the last report it produced, which referred to the 2018 year, was in 2019. This indicates that the initial impetus for impact assessment of legislation (2017 – 2018) seems to have vanished.
Citations:
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). “Indicators of Regulatory Policy and Governance EUROPE 2022 Portugal.” https://web-archive.oecd.org/2022-08-03/638949-Portugal-country-profile-EU-report-2022.pdf
JurisAPP Unidade Técnica de Avaliação de Impacto Legislativo. 2019. Relatório de Atividade – Ano de 2018.
https://jurisapp.gov.pt/media/1113/utail-relatorio-2018_final_15042019_publica.pdf
To what extent does the government effectively incorporate sustainability assessments within the framework of RIAs?
10
9
9
High-quality sustainability assessments are incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
8
7
6
7
6
High-quality sustainability assessments are, for the most part, incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
5
4
3
4
3
High-quality sustainability assessments are rarely incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
2
1
1
Sustainability assessments are not incorporated within regulatory impact assessments.
The Sustainable Development Report indicates that Portugal has achieved an SDG (Sustainable Development Goals) Index Score of 80%, showing a positive trajectory in goals pertaining to gender equality, access to clean water and sanitation, and the eradication of poverty. Portugal has shown a 61% progression toward the development goals set by the United Nations.
However, sustainability assessments are not systematically incorporated into environmental impact studies. Their inclusion is left to the discretion of the assessing entity, resulting in an inconsistent approach. Consequently, while some evaluations may consider sustainability, others might overlook it. This inconsistency is also evident in the use of sustainability-centric indicators and the consideration of long-term effects in the analyses.
Citations:
Sustainable Development Solutions Network. n.d. “Sustainable Development Report – Portugal.” https://dashboards.sdgindex.org/profiles/portugal
Jornal de Negócios. 2024. “Portugal apresenta na ONU melhoria de 61% em indicadores dos Objetivos do Desenvolvimento.” https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/detalhe/portugal-apresenta-na-onu-melhoria-de-61-em-indicadores-dos-objetivos-desenvolvimento
However, sustainability assessments are not systematically incorporated into environmental impact studies. Their inclusion is left to the discretion of the assessing entity, resulting in an inconsistent approach. Consequently, while some evaluations may consider sustainability, others might overlook it. This inconsistency is also evident in the use of sustainability-centric indicators and the consideration of long-term effects in the analyses.
Citations:
Sustainable Development Solutions Network. n.d. “Sustainable Development Report – Portugal.” https://dashboards.sdgindex.org/profiles/portugal
Jornal de Negócios. 2024. “Portugal apresenta na ONU melhoria de 61% em indicadores dos Objetivos do Desenvolvimento.” https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/detalhe/portugal-apresenta-na-onu-melhoria-de-61-em-indicadores-dos-objetivos-desenvolvimento
To what extent do government ministries utilize ex post evaluations to improve existing policies?
10
9
9
High-quality ex post evaluations serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
8
7
6
7
6
High-quality ex post evaluations frequently serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
5
4
3
4
3
High-quality ex post evaluations rarely serve as the basis for making adjustments to public policies.
2
1
1
High-quality ex post evaluations are not utilized to make adjustments to public policies.
While there is no systematic institutionalization of ex post evaluations in Portugal, there have been improvements. In March 2021, the Legislative Impact Assessment Technical Unit (UTAIL), located within JurisAPP – Centro de Competências Jurídicas do Estado and tasked with oversight of ex post evaluations, was merged into PlanAPP. Since then, PlanAPP has become the body responsible for ex ante and ex post impact policy evaluation (Decree-Law 21/2021). During the period under analysis, PlanAPP has produced several evaluations.
The most recent OECD Indicators of Regulatory Policy and Governance 2022 scores Portugal close to the OECD average regarding ex post evaluation of subordinate regulations. However, the country remains below the OECD average in terms of primary laws. The report also recommends that Portugal adopt systematic ex post evaluation, which is not a current requirement.
Citations:
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). 2022. “Indicators of Regulatory Policy and Governance EUROPE 2022 Portugal.” https://web-archive.oecd.org/2022-08-03/638949-Portugal-country-profile-EU-report-2022.pdf
Decree-Law 21/2021. 2021. https://diariodarepublica.pt/dr/detalhe/decreto-lei/21-2021-159432384
https://www.planapp.gov.pt/estudos-de-avaliacao/
The most recent OECD Indicators of Regulatory Policy and Governance 2022 scores Portugal close to the OECD average regarding ex post evaluation of subordinate regulations. However, the country remains below the OECD average in terms of primary laws. The report also recommends that Portugal adopt systematic ex post evaluation, which is not a current requirement.
Citations:
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). 2022. “Indicators of Regulatory Policy and Governance EUROPE 2022 Portugal.” https://web-archive.oecd.org/2022-08-03/638949-Portugal-country-profile-EU-report-2022.pdf
Decree-Law 21/2021. 2021. https://diariodarepublica.pt/dr/detalhe/decreto-lei/21-2021-159432384
https://www.planapp.gov.pt/estudos-de-avaliacao/